When my playing days ended, I still had this craving for competition - that desire to win lead me to sports betting.
I am still very much a student of the game, I take losing and making mistakes personally, I carry nearly every access package and covered sports as a free lance journalist for a number of years but it always lacked the competition in that I didn't factor in the outcome. I prided myself on doing the research but the payoff at best, was an interested reader.
So I created the Sports Bet Guide, I am the lead handicapper and it's founder and the aim is almost to merge the world of journalism with handicapping. I am of the philosophy that a pick is different from a play, anyone can do the e-nee meanie routine. But a real expert can make you change your opinion...
If my opinion can change yours, that to me is a handicapping.
All of my plays come with detailed analysis and it is something we expect from every handicapper at this site, the who, what, where and why is the reason you win or lose. It is the clear indicator of the level of preparation and work that went into the prediction.
With a background in sales and finance, I have the knowledge to analyze and understand numbers but also to track them on my own.
contact: tshilton@thesportsbetguide.com
My personal betting philosophy is based on a constant study of angles, I value stats and odds but also track key factors on my own. Quality of opponent, quality of starts, match-ups, role players and difference makers.
As an example think of sport watch a game and take notes on who you believe are the 5 best players on either team, take notes on them in these five areas;
Opportunity to Perform - did they create or have chances to make a difference
- Performance - what did they do with these chances
- Ability to Perform - release point, first step, closing speed, health, decision making etc.
- Quality of Opponent - coverage, scheme, place in standings, personnel etc.
- Likely Hood of Repeat Performance - what caused the outcome
Of course I use other statistical data: trends, head-to-heads, shifts in the line and many other useful capping tools as a guideline as well.
Lastly because a lot goes into all of my plays I tend to be a less is more type of handicapper, I don't feel pressure to have plays for every game.
I play to win every time and hate losing.
[b**Rating Policy**:[/b]
All of The Sports Bet Guide's plays are ranked under a strict rating policy in order for us to ensure are records are entirely honest and accurate, we have modified the same ranking system used by the site's that monitor handicappers. The monitors rate plays from 1-5 units, all we have done to modify this is used the unit system to create a money management guideline.
What scale you use should be based on the value of your sportsbook, the general rule of thumb is approx. 2% of your total.
Rating Policy:
- 1-Unit = Free Plays
- 2-Unit = Action Bets
- 3-Unit = Best Bets (Play of the Day, POD)
- 4-Unit = Top Bets (Play of the Week, POW)
- 5-Unit = Super Bet (Play of the Month or year)
For a Detailed Explanation of this Money Management System
