4.5** MLB POD Thursday #Braves vs. #Marlins 7:10pm ET

[Pick Bot]

Braves -123 4.5* MLB POD

The Braves are down 9-0 right now and they lost 9-0 on Tuesday, but I expect them to come back and close out game 3 to avoid a sweep as hot as the Marlins have been at home they are 18-45 in their last 63 game 3's. The Braves also won't have to face another ridiculously hard throwing RHP after facing Nathan Eavoldi and Jose Fernandez back to back Henderson Alvarez who still throws pretty hard is going to be a lot easier. Alvarez just does not have the numbers against the Braves posting a 6.86 ERA in 4 career starts. Freeman, Gattis, Heyward, Johnson and Justin Upton are a combined 18-42 against Alvarez and that gives the Braves a significant advantage when you consider who they have on the mound.


Ervin Santana will make another start and he's putting up fabulous numbers with 10.08 K/9 just 1.63 BB/9 5.9% HR/FB while posting a 1.95 ERA and a 2.21 xFIP. compared with Alvarez who is only striking out 5.46 guys per 9 with 2.73 BB/9 and a 3.64 xFIP along with a 24.2% line drive %. Santana is very solid at night and even better on 5 days rest which he'll be on tomorrow. I expect another quality start from him as he was 12 for 12 on 5 days rest in 2013 posting a 2.18 ERA on 5 days rest. He's handled the Marlins pretty well in his career. The Marlins are 15-37 in their last 52 vs. RH starter 8-22 in their last 30 home vs. the Braves while the Braves are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30