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4.5* MLB POD Goes Late - #Pirates vs. #Padres

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.5* MLB POD Goes Late - #Pirates vs. #Padres

Postby Pick Bot » Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:12 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments

Freddy Wills's Pick
Padres -117 4.5* MLB POD
The Padres have pretty much owned the Pirates over the last few years going 35-14 in their last 53 overall meetings. The Pirates main issue for tonight's game is that they have to play in a pitcher friendly park and they won't have the advantage in the bullpen that they normally do as the Padres are 2nd in the league with a 2.27 ERA out of their bullpen while they post an overall 2.62 ERA at home. Tim Stauffer will make the start for the 3rd time this year. He was in the bullpen earlier in the year and all of last year, but following his last start where he was shelled for 7 ER I think he bounces back here. He only threw 37 pitches and comes into the year with a 3.43 xFIP and a 3.40 sERA which are both better than Charlie Morton who has a 4.24 xFIP.

The Pirates are also not hitting on the road .220 average vs. RHP and just 3.06 runs per 9. The Pirates have scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their last 8 games while the Padres have scored 4 runs or more in 7 of their last 9. I've never liked Charlie Morton on the road and I don't see how he would have the advantage here tonight as the Padres are +2.5 runs per 9 vs. RHP compared with the Pirates over their last 5 and +1.78 over their last 10.
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