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4** MLB POD - Biggest Underdog Of The Year!

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4** MLB POD - Biggest Underdog Of The Year!

Postby Pick Bot » Wed Jun 04, 2014 10:12 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments

Freddy Wills's Pick
White Sox +170 4* MLB POD
Dodgers are dead last in the league against LHP with a .631 OPS and the White Sox offense has been rejuvenated with the Cuban sensation Jose Abreu as they get set to take on Josh Becket. First off John Danks is off back to back dominant starts where he has fixed his control issues where he has an 8:1 K to walk ratio. He's struggled on the road but that has been against all top 20 offenses vs. LHP while the Dodgers are last as I mentioned before. Despite his overall numbers Danks actually has quality starts in 7 of his 10 starts this year and he has a 2.08 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers and a 3.26 ERA in 23 career starts in interleague play.

The Dodgers are at a 1.63 runs per 9 disadvantage based on the pitchers and I think it's more when we take a look at Josh Beckett. Beckett has over exceeded to start this year thus his value and the value when he pitches is on the opponent which I'll take in this spot. Beckett threw a no hitter just 1 start ago and comes in on 4 days rest for the second game in a row following that taxing no hitter where he threw 128 pitches. I took a look back at pitchers who threw a no hitter or perfect game over the last two seasons who had 2 or more starts after their gem and in each case they all struggled to go deep and pitch a quality start. Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Felix Hernandez combined over 14 starts following their gem performance for a 4.97 ERA while averaging just 6 1/2 innings of work. Tons of value on this play when you combine the fact that the Dodgers have struggled vs. LHP all year and both bullpens are middle of the road.
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