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3.5* MLB POD Late Night Fix

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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3.5* MLB POD Late Night Fix

Postby Pick Bot » Tue Jun 17, 2014 10:17 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments

Freddy Wills's Pick
Rangers -114 3.5* MLB POD
This is really my favorite line of the day because it seems like we have every advantage working for us. Yu Darvish is a better pitcher than Tommy Milone and the Rangers are hitting lefties better than Oakland is hitting righties. Raw stats show Darvish with what I like to call their real ERA at 3.15 and 2.96 for xFIP and sIERA. While Milone has been far more lucky with a 4.57 and 4.53. His real ERA is under 3.5 yet the numbers are telling me he should be over 4 based on his stuff. Well the Rangers are hitting better on the road vs. LHP and they nearly double their output overall vs. LHP compared with RHP. Over 6 runs per 9 on the road and over 11 over their last 10 games overall for some impressive numbers.

Both pitchers are similar in the fact that they are fly ball pitchers who will benefit from Oakland's stadium layout. Both pitchers are on 5 days rest which is usually a positive, but these pitchers actually pitch worse on extra rest. Overall I think the line should be more around 1.3 - 1.4 given how much Darvish is better than Milone and how well the Rangers hit lefties giving us value on our dollar.
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