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Rose Bowl Play - Penn State vs. USC Guarnateed

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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Rose Bowl Play - Penn State vs. USC Guarnateed

Postby Pick Bot » Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:03 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments

Freddy Wills's Pick
Penn State +7.5 3.3% play
I’ll gladly take this recent line movement and take the Nittany Lions at +7.5 here today. I honestly do not really understand it when you consider the PAC 12 is down this year and has gone 0-5 ATS in bowl games. Now they definitely get their best team playing here in USC, but Penn State is also having a fantastic year and may be the most balanced team that USC has faced since Alabama.

Both these teams got hot down the stretch but Penn State did so in impressive fashion averaging 31.5 points against top 25 defenses. Meanwhile USC averaged 19.5 vs. the top 35 defenses of which they only faced 4 of. Penn State faced 7 top 25 defenses and only one team kept them under 20 points. They have a mobile QB, a RB in Barkley who was banged up and is now healthy and a receiving corp that is really under rated.

Penn State’s defense has a tough matchup maybe their toughest yet, but with 7.5 points to work with I feel confident. They can stop the run and put USC in difficult spots with a top tier pass rush led by Garret Sickels and Evan Schwan I believe they can force USC into a mistake that will give them a chance to win this game in the end. After all they have the advantage in the front 7 believe it or not as USC is ranked77th in havoc rate while Penn State is ranked 8th and has 112 tackles for loss on the season. I also think Penn State has the better coaching staff in this match up!
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