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Saturday's Free Pick - 16-4-1 ATS L21!

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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Saturday's Free Pick - 16-4-1 ATS L21!

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:03 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments

Freddy Wills's Pick
Tulsa +5 1.1% Free Play @ 12pm et

Tulsa was a premium play last week at +7.5 vs. Navy, and they held a 14-0 early lead and we thought we’d cruise, but a 31-21 final and it was a loss. I feel good about Tulsa this week facing another option offense for the third week in a row.

Tulane runs the option much like New Mexico & Navy, but just not as well ranking 31st in rushing ypc while New Mexico ranked 12th, and Navy ranks 8th. Also they have just 8 red zone trips compared to Navy who has 16, and New Mexico who has 19. They also struggle on third down which is another big key running the option as they have only converted 32%. Tulsa has actually done well defending in the red zone vs. both option teams they just faced allowing only 40% of those trips to result in a TD.

Tulsa’s offense also relies heavily on the run and they have two studs in D’Angelo Brewer and QB Chad President. The last two weeks they went up against run defenses ranked 61st and 53rd. Tulane comes into this game ranking 95th so it’s easily their easiest task of late.

Tulsa has covered 11 of the 12 games in the series and I like their chances to pull the upset or lose by less than 4. 4 a very valuable number here considering Tulsa’s defense in the red zone the last two games against option offenses.
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