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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Cardinals vs. Rams
Total
47½ -110
  at  BETONLINE
in 12h

Free Pick on Rams/Cardinals UNDER

I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here. 

The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end. 

The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one. 

UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points. Take the UNDER! 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
76ers vs Raptors
OVER 215 -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Blazers vs Bucks
UNDER 214½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Spurs vs Bulls
UNDER 202½ -107 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 21, 2017
Blazers vs Bucks
Blazers
+3½ -108 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Blazers +

For whatever reason Portland wasn't getting a ton of love coming into this season and I think they are still flying under the radar, which is hard to do when you are off back-to-back blowout road wins. The thing is they beat a couple of teams no one is expecting a lot out of, but I think we could see the Blazers be the Rockets of last year, who just covered everything to start the season as no one believed they were as good as they were playing. 

Portland is getting it down on both sides of the ball, averaging 119 ppg and allowing just 86 ppg. They held the Suns to 76 and Phoenix went out in their next game and scored 130. Indiana had just put up 140 and they held them to 96. Milwaukee's offense hasn't looked great and I think they struggle to keep pace with the Blazers in a bit of a letdown spot after hosting the Cavs on national TV last night. Take Portland! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Arizona State vs Utah
OVER 56 -102 Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
-20½ -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -

This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite. 

UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye. 

Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Indiana vs Michigan State
OVER 45 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Iowa vs Northwestern
OVER 47½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on Iowa/Northwestern OVER 

I like the value here with the total sitting at less than 50 points for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Northwestern and Iowa. These two teams combined for 69 points last year with a total of just 44.5 and have combined for at least 50 in each of the last 3 meetings. 

Iowa scored a season-high 45 against Illinois before going into their bye week and I look for the offense to have no problem scoring here against what I feel is a pretty average Northwestern defense. The Hawkeyes have a power running game that's going to be tough for the Wildcats to stop and that should open up the door for some big plays through the air against a Northwestern secondary that ranks 101st in the country, giving up 249.7 ypg.

I also think we haven't seen the best of what this Iowa offense has to offer, which is in the first year of a new starter. I look for the bye week to do wonders for sophomore quarterback Nathan Stanley, who has thrown 15 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions and could have a few more scores on some deep balls he's just overthrown. 

The Hawkeyes have a strong defense like they have just about every year under Kirk Ferentz, but they aren't an elite unit this year and actually come in ranked just 70th in the country in total defense. I think both teams score well into the 20s and easily eclipse the mark. Take the OVER! 

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Louisville vs Florida State
UNDER 59½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Illinois vs Minnesota
Minnesota
-13 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -

Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.

Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns.  It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Michigan vs Penn State
Michigan
+10 +100 at betonline
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +

This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder. 

I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check. 

I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
South Florida vs Tulane
Tulane
+11½ +105 at betonline
Won
$105
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Tulane +

It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4. 

Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Indiana vs Michigan State
Michigan State
-7 -115 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -

I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.

I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.

Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
Iowa vs Northwestern
Iowa
+105 at GTBets
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa

Forget the spread in this one and just take the Hawkeyes to win on the money line. Northwestern is fresh off an impressive 37-21 win at Maryland and I think it has the Wildcats overrated. That's a Maryland team that is down to their 3rd string quarterback and a huge drop-off in terms of talent from the first two guys. The only other wins are against Bowling Green, who is awful and Nevada, who is currently 1-6 and they trailed the Wolf Pack by 10 in the 2nd half. 

Iowa on the other hand is a team that I think is flying a bit under the radar, as they are a few breaks away from being undefeated. They gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game in a 19-21 home loss to Penn State and the very next week gave Michigan State all they could handle in a 10-17 loss (fumbled twice in MSU territory). 

Hawkeyes have a big edge here in terms of scheduling, as they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this one coming off their bye. Iowa also matches up well with this Northwestern team. The Wildcats offense relies on their ability to run the ball and that plays into the strength of Iowa's physical front 7. Hawkeyes also have one of the top offensive lines, which is going to open up holes in the running game and allow quarterback Nathan Stanley to attack a Northwestern secondary that ranks 102nd in the country, giving up 250 ypg. 

Wildcats are just 9-22 ATS under Fitzgerald at home against a team with a winning record and only 4-15 ATS at home against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Iowa is also a road covering machine, as they are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Take Iowa! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2017
LSU vs Ole Miss
Ole Miss
+7 -105 at BMaker
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +

I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year. 

The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game. 

This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss! 

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