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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2017
Red Sox vs Angels
Red Sox
-128 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

Red Sox LH David Price (5-2, 3.39 ERA) vs. Angels RH JC Ramirez (8-8, 4.54)

Price the BoSox starting pitcher delivered eight scoreless innings against the New York Yankees on Sunday and has allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts spanning 20 innings of top tier work. Needless to say Price is in a groove and a quality hurler to back tonight via a decent line. Meanwhile, Angels starter Ramirez, in first start after the all star break was roughed up, vs TB allowing 4 runs in just 6 innings. Ramirez has also not pitched well at home this season where owns a 1-5 record along with a bloated 5.50 ERA.

Considering the form of both pitchers, and the Angles overall offensive struggles, it will be easy decision taking Price and the Red Sox in this spot. Angels are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Angels are 1-4 in Ramirezs last 5 home starts.Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125  like the Angels - poor AL offensive team (4.2 runs/game or less ) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) are 41-85 for a go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to won on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2017
A's vs Mets
-104 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Free

As LH Sean Manaea (8-5, 3.68 ERA) vs. Mets RH Zack Wheeler (3-7, 4.98)

As starting hurler Manaea has lasted at least seven innings in each of this three starts .He owns a 2.67 ERA over his last four starts while allowing just one home run in 27 innings of top tier work, and matches up very well vs the NY Mets batting order. Meanwhile, Mets starter Wheeler has dropped five straight decisions and operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum as is evident by recording a 10.13 ERA during the above mentioned negative run. Needless to say from a pitching perspective that the As have the edge here on a value line.

MLB  team like the As - lower tier offensive team - scoring 4.4 runs/game or less on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 5.0 or more runs/game on the season (NL) are a long term profitable side to back as their record clicks in at 174-127 dating back 20 seasons, for a .578 win rate with dime players making more than $47980.00 in profits backing this trend. Also over the same time period MLB Home teams like the Mets - good NL offensive team (4.7 runs/game or more ) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities. are 23-50 for a go against conversion rate of  69% for bettors.

Play on the Athletics to win on the moneyline


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.