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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Feb 20, 2018
Bruins vs Oilers
Oilers
+116 at betonline
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Boston's been tearing up the league in robotic fashion for almost 3 months going (30-6-4), but after exerting a great deal of energy over that period of time,  aare starting to look a little worn out, with recent losses to non play off teams Buffalo and Vancouver, proving they are just human. After playing a grueling physical game last night, in  2-1 in win Calgary  the Bruins are now susceptible  to being upset by a Oilers team on a 3 game home win streak overall and that has owned this series of late winning the L/6 meetings. I'm betting on super star Conner McDavid and company notching the upset here at home.

BOSTON is 2-9 ATS  L/11 revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more this season.(Edmonton beat the Bruins in Beantown earlier this season by a 4-2 count)

Talbot the Oilers goalie is in top form ,  splitting his last two starts, but stopped 55 of 58 shots during that span. He also has won four of his last six starts at home.

Play on Edmonton to win on the moneyline

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2018
NC-Greensboro vs Wofford
OVER 136½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Wofford averages 82.1 ppg at home this season on offense, while Greensboro averages 72.4 ppg on the road.Note:  UNCG  overall is averaging 74.0 points per game while shooting 44.8 percent (737-of-1646) from the field and 36.3 percent (273-of-752) from 3-point land and according to my projections should be on pace for a similar offensive output.   Greensboro plays the better defensive ball, but I'm betting their dragged into a faster affair than they like by a revenge minded Wofford team that plays their best basketball at home, which I'm betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers anticipate. Wofford’s only loss at home in conference play came at the hands of ETSU by a 75-62 margin.In their L/meeting on Dec 30 of this season, Greensboro on their own home court dictated the pace and came away with a 71-67 win, but here on the road Wofford will up the speed of this game , which is more to their liking which will result in this tilt eclipsing the number.  

These teams have gone over the Total in 9 straight meetings here at Wofford.

UNC-GREENSBORO is 8-1 OVER  L/9  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games dating back to last season, with a combined average of 156.8 ppg scored. UNC-GREENSBORO is 9-1 OVER   in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last couple of seasons with a combined average score of 154.8 ppg clicking in on the board.WOFFORD is 6-0 OVER  L/6  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last few seasons with a combined average of 151.2 ppg scored. WOFFORD is 12-2 OVER  L/14  in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 158.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. WOFFORD is 10-1 OVER L/11 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 162.6 ppg getting scored. WOFFORD is 15-3 OVER  L/18 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games of 157.9 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2018
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan
Toledo
+1½ -110 at BMaker
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

I'm betting on  Toledo   to bounce back from Saturday's 99-71 defeat at Ball State when it travels to Ypsilanti, Mich to play Eagles.It was the Rockets only second loss in 13 games. Toledo swept the Eagles in last seasons series with 73-57 victory  in the Glass City and a 60-56 win in Ypsilanti. Meanwhile, E.Mich is off a road win vs Central Michigan  and have won 4 of their L/5 , and despite of a winning overall record  are just 2-2 in their L/4 home games and I'm betting the 3rd loss in their L/5 is on the horizon. From  a matchup perspective the Rockets D, has allowed opponents to shoot 45.2 % on the road and E.Michigan has shot, 48.2 at home. My won projections, suggest that E. Mich should make between 40% to 46% of their shots here tonight, which is a good omen, considering the Rockets are   8-0 ATS in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. It seems that Toledo thrives against teams like this when pushed into a shootout scenario where both teams are projected to score 70 points or more , which the linesmakers are expecting . Look for Tre'Shaun Fletcher  who ranks second in scoring at 19.7 ppg, and Jaelan Sanford who is seventh at 16.9 ppg to be the catalysts behind a Toledo victory.

Note: As a team, Toledo ranks 21st nationally (as of Feb. 17) with its 40.0 3PTFG% and also No.1 in the MAC with its 28.5 defensive rebounds per game. The Rockets are also second with 79.7 ppg, 15.6 apg, a 1.3 assist/turnover ratio and third with a 46.7 FG% and 9.7 three-point FGs per tilt. Toledo has also  converted 260-of-650 of their 3 pt attempts for a 40.0 conversion rate,  ranking first in the MAC and ranks 20th nationally..  UT's 9.7 treys per game are third in the MAC (36th nationally).

E MICHIGAN is 2-15 ATS L/17 versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots and  is 1-12 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games dating back to last season.Murphy is 4-16 ATS L/20 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games . E.Mich is 0-6 ATS  in home games off a win against a conference rival dating back to last season. TOLEDO is 8-1 ATS L/9 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games dating back to last season. TOLEDO is 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Play on Toledo to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2018
Rhode Island vs La Salle
Rhode Island
-7 -115 at betonline
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

Rhode Island ranks very high in power rankings polls so I have no problem what so ever recommending we lay the lumber here with them here on the road vs  what is currently a far inferior hoops program LaSalle. Rhody has won two straight and seven of the last eight meetings, including an 74-62 victory on Jan.  and has won four straight in this series at Gola Arena. Despite a loss at St. Bonaventure two games back, Rhode Island has  remained firmly in both national polls for a fifth straight week, ranking No. 18 in both the Associated Press and College Basketball Coaches Poll. With this game coming late in the season, Rhode Island seeking a NCAA tourney bid will not over look their opponents tonight and instead come out here looking to make a statement.

LASALLE is 0-6 ATS  L/6 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. RHODE ISLAND is 10-3 ATS L/13 when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.LASALLE is 1-11 ATS  L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game and is 2-11 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record. 

CBB home team (LASALLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 47-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play  on Rhode Island to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2018
Creighton vs Butler
Creighton
+5½ -106 at pinnacle
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Premium

Creighton is 19-8 this year (8-6 BIG EAST) in has played a  hard core nine games against ranked opponents. Six of the Jays losses were vs  teams that were ranked at the time (No. 22 Baylor, No. 15 Gonzaga, No. 23 Seton Hall, No. 10 Xavier, No. 1 Villanova, No. 5 Xavier), despite of those setbacks the Bluejays are also one of 27 teams nationally with three wins over top-25 teams and must not be underestimated as dogs against any opponent, especially against Butler program that they matchup well against.( blue Jays are 4-1 SU/5 meetings and have covered 7 of the L/9 overall in this series) Creighton has won the last three games by scores of 75-64, 76-67 and 85-74.Creighton has  shown the ability to slow  down   Butlers top offensive threat in the recent past, Kelan Martin (20.7 ppg. this year) , as the star forward has not shot well at all while going head to head  by reigning BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year Khyri Thomas. This I'm betting will be the key to a Creighton cover tonight. Note: I know Creighton lost last time out to Marquette, but that's a good omen for us here , as Creighton is 7-0 this season in the game immediately after a loss, outscoring their opposition 87.9 - 63.6 and outrebounding the opposition 40.1 - 32.9.McDermott is 17-6 ATS L/23 off a home loss as the coach of CREIGHTON.

Creighton is averaging 85.4 points per game this season (sixth nationally), shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (10th nationally), and 37.9 percent from three-point range. CU also owns a 1.63 assist/turnover ratio (fourth nationally) to date, and a +1.9 rebound margin.Creighton's 14 games this season making 80 percent or better at the line ranks tied for fifth nationally, and tied with Butler for first among all major conference teams and gives them a must needed edge here on the road.

CREIGHTON is 8-1 ATS L/9 on Tuesday nights over the last couple of  seasons.CREIGHTON is 12-4 ATS L/16 after allowing 80 points or more .CREIGHTON is 21-8 ATS L/30 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. BUTLER is 0-7 ATS l/7 versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 84+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season.

Play on Creighton to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 20, 2018
Northern Illinois vs Ball State
Northern Illinois
+10 -105 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Despite of N.Illinois experiencing a down season, they are being underestimated here according to my own player to player matchup systems analysis and we have value taking the dog on this line. NIU  I'm betting will ride the  momentum from its 75-67 upset victory over Western Michigan this past Saturday and keep the flow going here today against a team they have circled for payback for two losses they suffered to Ball State last season. It must be noted NIU is 5-0 ATS  as DD dogs here as visitors and 6-1 ATS with revenge. Meanwhile, Ball State is in a emotional letdown situation after a huge battle that they won vs Toledo on the weekend, and could easily be flat here tonight against a team that I'm sure they are over looking.

BALL ST is 12-29 ATS as a favorite over the last few seasons. BALL ST is 2-11 ATS  after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.

CBB  road team (N ILLINOIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.