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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Cardinals vs. Rams
UNDER
47½ -110
  at  BETONLINE
in 3h

Free Pick on Rams/Cardinals UNDER

I think we get another defensive battle in London with the Rams and Cardinals. These two NFC West rivals combined for 50 in the final meeting last year, but that was all Arizona in a 44-6 win. The previous six meetings all finished with 46 or fewer points and I look for it to return to form here. 

The Rams got people excited about their offense early, but they put up big numbers against bad defenses. I know the Cardinals have allowed 30+ in each of their last two games, but they had the Bucs held to just 6 points last week before taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. A mistake they won't make again after letting it get too close at the end. 

The other key here is the Rams are starting to play up to their potential on defense. It started in the 2nd half against Dallas when new DC Wade Phillips moved a couple rookies into the starting lineup. They have been lights out since and I think they make life miserable for the Cardinals in this one. 

UNDER is 9-3 in the Rams last 12 games against division opponents and 11-5 in their last 16 off a win. It's also 7-3 in the Cardinals east 10 against the NFC West and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30+ points. Take the UNDER! 

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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Bengals vs. Steelers
Bengals
+5½ -110
  at  5DIMES
in 6h

Recommendation: Take the Cincinnati Bengals (#455)

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The Pittsburgh Steelers got a win and cover against the Chiefs last week, but it wasn’t because their offense was fixed.  Pittsburgh has struggle week after week on the offensive side of the football, averaging less than 20 points per game (#22 in the NFL) despite their bevy of skill position talent.  Much of the problem has come from the QB position, where, quite frankly, Ben Roethlisberger looks old.  And the quotes coming out of the Steelers locker room have this bettor very concerned with the fragile mental state of this team right now.

Check out this Roethlisberger quote, talking about former tight end Heath Miller, who retired two years ago.  “You develop that relationship with Heath over years and years in practice. Plus the type of person and teammate he was. He was probably the best teammate I’ve ever played with and one of the best men I’ve ever known in my life.”  Contrast that quote with the Martavis Bryant ‘I want to be traded’ rumors.  Note the modest production from rookie WR JuJu Smith Schuster.

Right now, Antonio Brown is the only consistent downfield weapon that they have.  RB LeVeon Bell had 35 touches on the Steelers 63 offensive snaps last week – too many for a balanced offense.  In three October starts, Big Ben has a 2-7 TD-INT ratio, and he currently ranks #30 out of 32 NFL QB’s in passer rating.  Both TD passes during that span came on poorly thrown balls – both could have been INT’s!  And it’s surely worth noting that the Steelers lauded home field edge at Heinz Field isn’t so great these days.  Mike Tomlin’s squad is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven regular season tries as home chalk.

While the Steelers offense continues to struggle, the Bengals appear to have figured it out!  Andy Dalton threw four picks without a TD over the first two weeks before Marvin Lewis fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese after facing a ‘near mutiny’ in the locker room.  The Red Rifle completed only 54% of his passes while averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in those games.

In the three games under new OC Bill Lazor, there’s been a ‘night and day’ type difference.  Dalton’s completion percentage is up to 73%, he’s averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with a 7-2 TD-INT ratio.  Tight end Tyler Kroft is developing into a solid weapon over the middle for Dalton; a team that isn’t missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert as much as they did last year.  This sure feels like a ‘somebody wins it by a field goal’ kind of game.  Too many points!  Take the Bengals.

NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Cowboys vs. 49ers
49ers
+6½ -110
  at  5DIMES
in 6h

Play - San Francisco 49ers (Game 470).

Edges - 49ers: 5-1 SU at home following three consecutive away games; and 8-3-1 ATS in this series; and 8-4 SUATS last 12 games versus NFC East opponents… Cowboys: 3-11 ATS as road chalk with Garret against foes off an ATS win… With the Niners returning home off five straight losses by a filed gal or less, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.  Thank you and good luck as always.

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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Ravens vs. Vikings
Vikings
-4 -115
  at  BMAKER
in 3h

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Minnesota Vikings -4

The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NFL since Mike Zimmer took over.  They have been especially tough at home, going 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.  And they have shown well at home this year.

The Vikings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.  Their defense is one of the top units in the NFL, giving up just 17.2 points per game, 295 yards per game and 5.0 per play.

Now they're up against arguably the worst offense in the NFL in the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a Ravens offense that is putting up just 19.0 points per game, 289 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  Joe Flacco looks lost behind a shaky offensive line and a receiving corps that can't stay healthy.

Just take one look at the Ravens' injury report and it will open your eyes.  No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than the Ravens.  They just can't field a competent team right now.  They lost by 37 to the Jaguars, by 17 to the Steelers, and then lost at home to the Bears last week despite getting two gift special teams touchdowns.

Baltimore is 1-8 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 7-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last three years.  Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games overall.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

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NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Ravens vs. Vikings
Ravens
+5 -110
  at  BOVADA
in 3h

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick NFL Sunday: Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Technically, this is a revenge game for the Vikings as they did lose their last game versus the Ravens in Baltimore when they most recently met in 2013. The significance in that is that the Vikings are just 1-7 ATS when they are favored and playing with revenge and they're facing a team that is off of a SU loss as a favorite. Indeed the Ravens were favored at home versus Chicago last week and went to lose that game in OT. Suffice to say, Baltimore is in an angry mood here and will be ready to go! The Ravens did lose in London this season but in their other "true" road games they are 2-0 and have won those games by a combined score of 50 to 17. Minnesota is off of a big divisional win last week (versus Green Bay) but of course they took advantage of Aaron Rodgers getting injured in that game. Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as you can tell by the O/U posted on this one. That is particularly noteworthy here because the Vikings are 9-17 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 38 points. Grab the generous points being offered here. Free Pick on BALTIMORE

NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Jaguars vs. Colts
Jaguars
-3 -105
  at  5DIMES
in 3h

Blake Bortles hasn't found himself chucking the ball as errantly as he has in the past - and Jacksonville has been good with their running game. Indianapolis is quite the opposite - they have struggled with moving the ball on the ground as their backs have not been finding holes. Marqise Lee is a solid route running receiver and is picking up a high end 15 YPC. The 3rd ranked pass coverage of Jacksonville is going to be chasing the Colts WRs around the field all game long, which means bad things for Indianapolis. If the 2-4 Colts want to try and get back to being back to at least respectable in the AFC South then they have to learn how to beat teams like Jacksonville. Playing Jacksonville and their nasty defense isn't the best way to change their anemic scoring ways. Jags RB Leonard Fournette is gifted runner and extremely strong - his ability to hit head on is going to give problems to DBs coming to tackle him on the outside. At the very least - for Indianapolis to try to beat Jacksonville on the field their offense has to get much better, this isn't that game. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South. Jacksonville wins this one on Sunday as your FREE PICK in NFL action.

NFL  |  Oct 22, 2017
Falcons vs. Patriots
Patriots
-3 -115
  at  BETONLINE
in 10h

Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 10-22-17

New England -3

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