Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Atlanta Braves -125

Great value here with the Atlanta Braves (11-5) over the New York Mets (8-8) in Game 2 of this NL East series.  Not only are the Braves the much better team, but they have a massive edge on the mound tonight as well.

Ervin Santana has been one of the more underrated starters in the league over the last several years.  Despite pitching in the American League prior to 2014, Santana has posted a 3.92 ERA or better in three of his past four seasons.  He went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 32 starts with the Royals last year.

The switch to the National League usually works wonders for pitchers, and the same can be said for Santana.  The right-hander has been untouchable thus far, going 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.643 WHIP while allowing just one earned run and nine base runners over 14 innings and striking out 17 batters.

Bartolo Colon has been a tremendous story over the past couple seasons in Oakland, but he's now past his prime, and his run has come to an end.  The 40-year-old has gone 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in three starts this season, giving up 12 earned runs, 6 homers and 28 base runners in 18 innings.

New York is 28-51 (-24.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Mets are 16-51 in their last 67 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Braves Saturday.

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FREE PLAY for 4/19

NY Mets +118

The Key: The Mets are showing value at this price at home with Colon on the hill.  They are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  Plus, Colon is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.20 in four starts versus Atlanta.  He threw seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory over the Braves April 8.  In addition, Colon's clubs are an impressive 27-13 in his last 40 starts.  Santana has had a pair of strong performances this season with one of them coming against the Mets, but he hasn't shown he deserves to be getting this much respect on the road where his clubs are 8-11 in his last 19 starts.  Bet the Mets.

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Saturday's MLB Free Pick  ---Mets/Braves UNDER 7---

Atlanta will be sending out Ervin Santana, who has been lights out since joining the rotation. Santana has allowed just 1 earned runs on 7 hits with 17 strikeouts over 14 innings in his first two starts. One of those starts came against the Mets, where he allowed just 3 hits over 8 shutout innings. I look for another strong outing from Santana.

New York counters with veteran Bartolo Colon, who threw 6 shutout innings at Atlanta earlier this month. Colon improved to 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.967 WHIP over 4 career starts versus the Braves. While Atlanta scored 6 runs in the series opener, their offense has total just 7 runs over their last 3 games combined.

The UNDER is 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 games when listed as a favorite of -110 to -150, 19-6-1 in their last 26 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and 40-17-3 in their last 60 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The UNDER is also 9-1-1 in the Mets last 11 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs and 13-5 in their last 18 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. BET THE UNDER!