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Read more..When we look at the coaching changes in college football we are always looking towards what gives us betting value. In today’s article we look at the non-power 5 coaching moves and a deep dive into what coaches do ATS over their first 3 seasons. We have a total of 13 new head coaches across the group of 5 teams, and gives us a lot to look at first year one. 1st Year Head Coach – ATS Over the last 4 seasons first year head coaches have gone 273-281 ATS, but 160-139 as an underdog which equates to just 53.5% ATS. Not a significant advantage, but enough to use it as a lean. I thought this was interesting since first year coaches in the Power 5 have a losing record ATS As a dog. It does make logical sense, because at the G5 level there is less competition so you should be able to lift your program up a bit faster than you would if you were a Power 5 head coach. You always have to factor in other things going on around a program, but we will get to some situational spots for a few teams on the list […]
Read more..Check out this college football team total in the Big 12. I am coming off another winning season in college football making it 8 of 10, and when combined with NFL we had a +56% return on investment. Over the 10 seasons handicapping college football, clients have earned an average yearly ROI of 34.18%. Looking forward to another great year. Invest in one of my early bird season packages now @ freddywills.com TCU Over 7.5 Wins +110 1% Play Gary Patterson is in his 19th year at TCU, and is coming off a season that featured a ton of injuries to the offense and defense, and they still finished 7-6 despite struggles from the offense, which were due to QB issues, and injuries to the offensive line, top QB, and WR. I think this TCU offense will be among the most improved offenses this year. The QB situation right now is a competition between Alex Delton (transfer from Kansas State), and highly touted freshman Max Duggan. I don’t think Patterson makes the mistake starting a freshman again after last years’ experience. TCU will have elite speed on the field, and WR Jalen Reagor could be the best player in this conference. […]
Read more..Grab my season pass on the home page of freddywills.com. I have 8 of 10 winning seasons in college football with an average ROI in 10 seasons of 34.18. $1,000/unit bettors have profited $341K in 10 total seasons. Need a sportsbook this season? Take advantage of bonuses from Betonline, the sportsbook I use. They are currently offering a 100% crypto bonus. 2019 Power 5 Coaching Changes In 2018 we had big coaching changes in Power Five College Football with programs like Florida, Florida State, Texas A&M and Nebraska getting new coaches. All of those coaches return for year #2, and we will talk about what that means from a betting perspective later. In 2019 we have a lot of new coaches again with a total of 11 in the Power Five conferences including big programs like Miami and Ohio State. Let’s break down each of the new 11 coaches, and then we will talk about how first year head coaches do in their first year against the spread, as well as second year, and third year head coaches with some big opportunities to pick double digit dogs for outright upsets. Ryan Day – Day will have to replace Urban Meyer, […]
Read more..This post was originally published on this siteFreddy Wills’s Comments Freddy Wills’s Pick Washington +123 2% ML Dog Play You could wait to see a 3 or risk playing this in live betting, but I like the value we get with the Huskies here. Auburn lost their top two RB, and they have a rebuilt offensive line. Their strength is QB Jarret Stidham and his receivers, but that falls into the strength of the Washington Huskies. Washington arguably has the best secondary in the nation as their defense returns 9 total starters. Jarret Stidham however has struggled against good defenses. He threw for just 79 yards in a loss to Clemson, 145 yards in a loss to Georgia, and 165 yards in a loss to LSU. This is going to be a low scoring game in my opinion, but I like Washington to avoid the mistakes, and Auburn loses in Georgia for the third time in a row. Chris Peterson is notorious from coming all this way to open up a season against an opponent that is supposed to be better and winning. I think we will see better QB play from Jake Browning this year and this is his […]
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Read more..**INTEGRITY MATTERS** – View Documented Records All of Freddy Wills free & premium sports picks that are released to clients are viewable to the public one minute after each game starts! They are also archived FOREVER w/ a time stamp in our documented records table. How many handicappers do this? The objective of this article is to track all plays from Freddy that you can get for free between the weekly free play I give out on the website, and the premium play I give out in my newsletter. SUBSCRIBE NOW to receive sports pick alerts by text message or email. 2018-19 Newsletter Plays Free Picks 2018-19 Week #1 New Mexico State +4.5 2017-18 Season Review: If you subscribe to my weekly premium newsletter between those plays and my free plays you would have gone 20-11-1 ATS + $21,285.48 for $1,000 unit bettors! 2017-18 Newsletter Plays **9-6-1 ATS +$15,935.48** Newsletter Week #1 Nevada +24 (Archived Analysis) 2.2% – (WIN $2,000) Newsletter Week #2 Stanford +200 2.5%(LOSS -$2,500) Newsletter Week #3 – Baylor +14.5 2.2% (WIN – $2,000) Newsletter Week #4 – Nevada +28 3.3% (LOSS -$3,300) Newsletter Week #5 – Florida State -7.5 +100 3.5% (LOSS – $3,500) Newsletter Week #6 – Minnesota +4 2.2% play (LOSS -$2,200) Newsletter Week #7 – Texas +9 3.3% play (WIN $3,000) Newsletter Week #8 – Tulane […]
Read more..Here is a look at the top ten college football teams according to pre-season AP poll: The idea of fading these team’s because we are not getting good value in their numbers, because most people are going to back them is a good idea. You will definitely get the value side by fading these teams, but it may not always pan out and this is just part of the recipe. I dug a little deeper and went back over the last six years to see how the pre-season top 10 did overall. Season ATS 2012 – 56-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2013 – 58-62 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2014 – 64-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2015 – 61-72 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2016 – 66-63 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2017 – 70-61 ATS (7 out of 10 had winning ATS records) Overall record was 375-400 ATS which is not a crazy advantage at 48.39%, actually it’s very close to the break even win % you need to show a profit if you blindly faded all […]
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Read more..Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS. Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those. We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI. Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year. Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective. Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week as we gave out Texas thinking Sam Ehlinger would play. He did not. However, we did pick a winner in our free play on Vanderbilt -10.5, and our premium pick newsletter play on West Virginia -3 was also a winner. So plays available to you last week went 2-1 ATS at no cost I think that’s the third week in a row we went 2-1 or better. So make sure you SUBSCRIBE at Freddywills.com. My end of year package has also been decreased down to $175and I’m guaranteeing 35% ROI or your $$ BACK! Also guaranteed 5% ROI package for week 11 only up on freddywills.com if you are interested in my NCAAF Predictions Iowa covered by 52 points ATS over Ohio State. What a crazy game […]
Read more..Vegas Mistakes Week #8 – 9 out of the 20 games were from the power 5. Proving that there is line value in both power 5 and non-power 5 conference. 57% of the mistakes we have tracked this season through week’s 2-7 have been from the power 5 conference. Missouri covered by 33 over Idaho. This was our Friday commute podcast play. Now 5-2 ATS on those plays this year! 4 of those wins have covered by 21+ points. Missouri simply dominated this game holding Idaho to 278 yards and 3.76 yards per play while Missouri had 658 yards an over 10 yards per play. Since Missouri’s bye they have looked awfully good in my opnion. Although this does not prove, anything and I would still look to fade them in conference play. They will face off against Uconn this week as 13 point road favorites. Uconn beat them 9-6 in Missouri in 2015 and are playing better themselves. Both teams won’t be looking ahead and are trying to get to a bowl game. Arkansas State covered by 32 over Louisiana Lafayette as they outgained them by 300 yards and over 3 yards per play. Arkansas State seems […]
Read more..Recapping the season so far as I mentioned on twitter it has not been a good year for me, I have gone 33-37 ATS on the year -23.395% luckily NFL has been good as 12-9 ATS +8.691% and we have done well on our commute podcast going 5-1 ATS. Make sure you tune into that again on Friday as we have been giving some really easy winners. Last Frida we gave out Cal +15 and of course they won outright and covered the spread by 50 points! So let’s recap and give you out some value betting options for week #8. This week is as crazy as I can remember. 4 Top 10 teams go down and many other favorites. South Alabama +800 (road) Syracuse +1400 California +639 Boston College +720 (road) LSU +215 (Over #10 Auburn) Tulsa +470 FIU +435 Arizona State +750 Just for fun – $100 parlay would have cashed – $668 million dollars to put things in perspective. The same amount of games as week 5. We had 19 games where the oddsmaker’s were off by more than a TD on the spread. The most we have had was 22 in week #3. Let’s go over […]
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