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Saturday's NCAAF POD 5.5* Max + bonus #LSU vs. #Georgia

PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2013 3:32 pm
by Pick Bot

Don't miss out on this two play package on Saturday which I feel likely will go 2-0 ATS as we are on a 9-2 ATS run right now and this package is backed by a 2-0 Guarantee and an in depth analysis for your betting confidence.

LSU +3 3.3* Showdown Play
This is a very interesting matchup with Zack Mettenberger going back home to Georgia where he started his career. Mettenberger has been excellent this year giving LSU some balance on offense and arguably Les Miles best offense since he's been here. It's still early but Mettenberger is completing 65% of his throws for 11.3 yards per attempts has 10TD to just 1 INT and is backed by Jeremy Hill who is a bruiser at 235lbs that is averaging 8.36 yards per carry this season. Georgia has their own star QB in Aaron Murry, but Murray is just 2-6 in his career vs. Top 10 opponents and I think he goes 2-7 and this is the game where he finally misses his top receiving weapon Malcolm Mithcell who was lost in the season opener.

Both teams come into this game in similar teams. Both are led by a balanced attack and experience on offense with a young defense and it's going to come down to who has the better defensive coaching, who can stop the run to set up third and longs and who can win the special teams battle. In my opinion LSU is the answer to all of those questions. While LSU is very green on the defensive side of the ball they are definitely more talented and have had more success thus far. Clemson and South Carolina were able to do whatever they wanted in the running game and I would argue LSU has more weapons in the passing game as both Odell Beckham Jr and Jaruis Landry have improved their route running and are NFL ready. LSU can force this team into 3rd and long they have a big advantage as Georgia was just 10-28 on third down conversions vs. Clemson and South Carolina. LSU is 32nd right now in stopping the run and is better than Clemson and South Carolina so you know Georgia will have their hands full.
Special teams is a no brainer after Georgia gave up 14 points to North Texas on special teams and LSU perennially has a great group on special teams. Turnovers and 3rd down conversions will also play a key role. Georgia and LSU have had issues getting to the QB so there is no edge there as both lines have protected their QBs too. Where LSU has the advantage is in the red zone where they are allowing just 50% TD's to Georgia's 70%. LSU also has forced 6 turnovers while Georgia has only forced 3.

Iowa -2 5.5* NCAAF POD
I have watched all of Minnesota's games this year except one and they have to be the luckiest 4-0 team. We lost ATS in two of those games, but I'm going heavy on Iowa to change that this week. First of all Minnesota has to be able to run the ball to win games and Iowa's run defense is just a perfect match up for us to back, because they are physical enough to shut it down. Iowa is a top 30 run defense right now allowing just 3.36 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. That has allowed the Iowa defense to be excellent on third down holding opponents to 24% conversions and in the red zone they have only allowed 1 TD on the season for a 16% TD percentage on red zone possessions. Minnesota is a one dimensional offense that won't be able to consistently put up points on the board.

Iowa on the other hand although they have not been great at one thing on offense they have shown at times they can do both. Over the last two games Jake Rudock has gained some confidence completing over 60% of his throws for 4 TD's and 0 INT's. David Fales showed just how leaky Minnesota's secondary is completing 22-35 passes for 439 yards and had a 185 QB rating, but his team just came up with too many mistakes. Iowa has several groups of running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry to balance the attack. They are averaging 50% conversions on third down and they are +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota was not just bad against San Jose State they allowed both UNLV and New Mexico State to complete 70% of their passes. They also allowed UNLV to run for 193 yards averaging 5.68 ypc and Iowa's running game is the best they have seen this year to date.