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4.5* NCAAF POD - Friday Night Lights - 26-10 Last 36 NCAAF P

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4.5* NCAAF POD - Friday Night Lights - 26-10 Last 36 NCAAF P

Postby Pick Bot » Fri Oct 25, 2013 8:09 pm

We are 2-0 this week ATS and nearly hit on our Kentucky ML bonus last night as they had the ball under a minute in Miss State's territory. We look to continue our spot on analysis on Friday night where we get quite the game between BYU and Boise State. Our play will be guaranteed or you get Saturday's 5 play package free!

Boise +7 -102 4.5* NCAAF pod
These two teams meeting tonight are really similar in a lot of ways. The only thing separating the two is who is home, and the fact that Boise has to break in a new QB after Southwick broke his ankle last week vs. Nevada. Last year it was Boise winning 7-6, and I see more of the same this year.

First of all let me introduce you to Grant Hedrick, the Oregon transfer has more mobile than Southwick (15 carries 192 yards), and will add to Boise's running game. He does not have the arm that Southwick has but he's extremely accurate and he'll give Boise balance that will be tough to defend on Friday night as he has completed 81% of his 37 passing attempts. Boise also is better at protecting their QB ranked 41st in pass protection while BYU is 93rd in sack %. Even with Van Noy roaming BYU has not been able to get a consistent pass rush and they have given up big rushing games in 2 of their last 3 games.

Boise's defense meanwhile is ranked 20th in sack% while BYU struggles at times to protect Taysom Hill who has been sacked 8.49% of his drop backs ranking 107th. Hill and BYU's offense is entirely one dimensional and he often makes mistakes that costs his team and I predict it will happen tonight. He's only completing 50% of his passes and has 8 interceptions on the year. Boise State just got done containing Nevada's Cody Fajaro who is of similar talent. Fajara is not quite the runner, but Boise shut him down 17 carries for 12 yards and Fajara actually is a threat to pass completing 70% of his passes. Boise should be able to dominate on defense and I believe the surprise element of Hendrick gives us value that we wouldn't have had with Southwick behind center.
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