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New Orleans Bowl - 5.5* NCAAF Max POD - 29-12 ATS NCAAF Run

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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New Orleans Bowl - 5.5* NCAAF Max POD - 29-12 ATS NCAAF Run

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:03 pm

Don't miss out on my play of the day going in the New Orleans bowl on Saturday night between two local teams playing on the turf. It's going to be an exciting one and I have a full in depth analysis waiting for your betting confidence. Get in on this game early because the spread is going to move!

UL Lafayette +3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
I'm grabbing this now before it goes to a pk or even Lafayette as a favorite if you have +125 at your book play the money line. The spread is off in some places for the uncertainty of Terrance Broadway, but he took snaps on Wednesday and threw the ball 50 times before Mark Hudspeth closed practice. These are two local teams that will get to play in the New Orleans bowl and I'm backing the team that is making their third straight trip in Lafayette who have covered as 6 point favorites and 6 point under dogs winning both games.

We get value here because Lafayette down the stretch struggled losing 2 games straight and I believe that if they wanted to they could have won those games. Mark Hudspeth had some interesting comments and I even faded this team at South Alabama in their last game. They had no incentive in that game other than an outright Sun Belt championship which is now shared, but they believe they won which is all that matters. They won @ Arkansas State 23-7 and Hudspeth is using that as motivation for this bowl game, because many are talking about how they struggled down the stretch, but again I'm not worried. I believe Lafayette is the far superior team here and should dominate against a Tulane team that has literally no offense.

Tulane has been great on defense, but I think they will struggle against a top tier offense like Lafayette on turf with time to prepare. Lafayette is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 following a loss and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 on turf and their last 21 on turf have gone over 15-5-1. Tulane is 118th in offense, 106th in pass and 103rd in rushing and failed to crack 200 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Lafayette has Alonzo Harris and Elijah McGuire out of the backfield who combined for over 1600 yards. Tulane will have their hands full and expect to see them pass to open up the run early in this game whether it's Broadway or Brooks Haack. Either way I expect to see both and I expect Lafayette to win.
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