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4.4** NCAAF POD - #Independence Bowl #BostonCollege vs. #Ari

PostPosted: Tue Dec 31, 2013 1:32 pm
by Pick Bot

Don't miss out on our 4.4* NCAAF POD going in the Independence Bowl after we won another big game on Monday with Ole Miss coming through at -3. We look to continue that along with our overall bowl success on Tuesday. This play is backed by a full in depth analysis and is guaranteed or one day is FREE!

Boston College +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This game is going to be a very exciting game featuring two of the best running backs in the country in Ka'Deem Carey and Andre Williams. Looking at this game it's going to be important to stop the run, but both of these running backs have been pretty match up proof running well against even the best. However, I give the edge to Boston College's rushing defense ranked 36th in the country over Arizona ranked 73rd. Arizona did face a stronger dose of running games in the PAC 12, but not by far and their 3-3-5 defense is better for defending spread rushing offenses. Every time they faced a north and south rushing game like BC they were allowing big games. BC on the other hand played their best running the ball against top run defenses and defending against the top rushing offenses. They held Florida State to 159 yards and were the only team to really scare Florida State on the season and they played extremely well at Clemson. Boston College is much stronger in the front 7 with 14 more sacks and 12 more tackles for loss.

What type of run defenses did these two go up again? Arizona rarely had to go on the road to face a good run defense and only faced 5 top 50 run stop units all year and they'll face #6 in their bowl game while Boston College had to face 8 top 50 run defenses and many on the road. They faced two top 10 rushing defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State and they had 87 carries for 396 yards. Many will point to the USC game that both of these teams had to travel to as why Arizona is better at stopping or running the ball, but that's a ridiculous trip for BC who had to go on the road the next week to face FSU after traveling across the country. This game is going to start at 12:30 on New Years Eve and I give the edge to BC in that scenario. Overall I don't see a drastic difference between these two teams for there to be a 7 point spread.

Thought I spoke on the rushing games a ton there are QB's playing in this game that will be called upon and BC has the better more capable QB in Rettig and a WR in Alex Amidon while Arizona has a better secondary, but they lack a pass rush. I give a slight edge to BC for balance on offense and I would give them a decent shot at pulling off the upset thus the 7.5 points give us tremendous value here.