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4.4** NCAAF POD + 3.3* NFL Bonus Play - *19-9 L28 Sports Pic

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:32 pm
by Pick Bot

I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented.

The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense.

Houston +3.5 3.3* bonus
The public and the home favorite has dominated Thursday night football and I stayed away last week, but the public is doubling down on the Colts after they have looked so great, but this is still more of a home team in my opinion. No lead however will be safe tonight with Andrew Luck and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull another magical win off by 3, but I think this is a game the Texans will control. They have play-makers on their defense and know the Colts well. I also think it's time for the books to win one on Thursday.