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Thanksgiving NCAAF Package - 5.5* MAX SEC GOW *5-1 Career on

PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:32 pm
by Pick Bot

I am 5-1 ATS since 2009 on Thanksgiving Day for college football when I started my career in professional handicapping. This Thanksgiving we have 2 great match ups and I feature my SEC Game of the Week and POD along with another strong confidence pick in the battle in texas between TCU and Texas. Both please feature my in depth analysis for betting confidence and I'm guaranteeing a 2-0 performance or Friday is FREE for college football!

LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD
Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with? This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion. Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength. LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness. This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses. First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster.

Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it. A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month. Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama. LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news. LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run. In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well. They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th). However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins. Key to the game - Run the damn ball! On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit. All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run. Now A&M is pure trash against the run. Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed. They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate. LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas. Watch what happens in their last game of the season.

LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards. They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch. Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose. In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd. This is the best pass defense they have faced all year. A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55. LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone. Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%.

Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined. Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home.

Texas +7 3.3* play
Texas is hot and granted it is against 3 of the bottom teams in the Big 12, but still they are playing with a lot of confidence right now and I just think 7 points is too much. Texas can play without any pressure while TCU may be trying to get style points here after their 34-30 win against Kansas did not do them justice. Texas has shown they can run on any run defense at home and that's big key to this game. TCU's defense should keep this in check, but again I expect a low scoring game any way.

Texas ability to stop the run has to be their because in 4 of their 5 losses they allowed 200+ yards. However, they have not allowed a single opponent to rush over 5 ypc. TCU is rushing for 1 yard less on the road and when they have been held under 5.5 yards per carry it has been a close game with wins of 4, 1, 4, and a loss by 3. Charlie Strong is very good on defense against spread teams and he has the prototype team to get a team like TCU out of their rhythm which is what I think we see happen here. Strong also very good with extra time to prepare on defense. Both coaches are very good in this match up, but the home team with a good defense catching a TD is just too good to pass up. Texas has the 10th rated sack defense from a % perspective. Baylor has only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 at getting to the QB and they lost that game.