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5.5* MAX Rating NCAAF POD Guaranteed

PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:32 pm
by Pick Bot

Maryland +11.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State. Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers. Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here.

Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd. Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense), Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense). The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry. So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating), West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th). Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay.
Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries. However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5. Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play. Take the Terrapins here with good value.