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4.4* NCAAF POD - 4-0 ATS POD's This Bowl season

PostPosted: Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:33 pm
by Pick Bot

NC State +6.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
NC State has to be playing this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder. This is a very well coached team under Dave Doeren. Ironically they face off an SEC team they have a lot in common with. Both are nearly identical in pace, and yards per play on offense and defense. They both played identical games against their common opponent Troy and had very easy non-conference schedules. They both feature a senior QB with experience that does not turn the ball over. I did not want to make the assumption a lot of people do with the SEC over an ACC or other conference so I went back to look at recent history.
Recent history suggests the value is considerably on NC State’s side when you consider these two teams are on the same level in their respective conferences, lost to teams they were supposed to and beat the teams they were supposed to. THE SEC is actually 7-9 since losing the national championship to the ACC in 2014 against the ACC. This year they went just 4-3, and what is shocking is how well the ACC played against some of the top tier teams. For instance Syracuse covered a large spread with ease over LSU, Kentucky lost by 14 to Louisville (both on the same level), Florida got blown out by Florida State (again on the same level), South Carolina nearly upset Clemson, but other than that the ACC played much better than the SEC for the second year in a row.

I don’t think much separates these two teams and it should be the little things that matter. I’ve never been a big fan of Nick Mullen he’s 3-2 in bowl games, but has lost the last two against power 5 conferences. He lost to the ACC’s Georgia Tech by 14 as a 6 point favorite last year, and lost by 14 as a +1.5 point dog in 2013 to Northwestern. These teams are fairly similar in all statistical categories the major differences are Miss State’s not as balanced they throw the ball more than nearly everyone in the country while NC State is more balanced. I think it’s important to note the strength of NC State’s front line as they rank 18th in sack %, while Miss State ranks 82nd, and 72nd in protection. So that’s another key here, but turnover margin will likely decide this game and Miss State was -5, while NC State was +10 as they only had 11 turnovers on the season. Miss State really struggled with the running game, and with that they fumbled a lot. I trust Dave Doeren will have his team motivated and ready to play in their home state as he improves to 3-0 in bowl games.