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R-A-R-E 5.5* MAX 67.6% Career Bowl ATS - **Oklahoma vs. Cle

PostPosted: Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:03 pm
by Pick Bot

Freddy releases his 5th max rating POD of the bowl season and is 4-0 so far. Freddy throughout his bowl career has had plenty of success on these plays with a 67.6% ATS record on max rating bowl POD selections going 25-12 ATS! All 4 of his plays this bowl season have been easy covers starting with LA Tech -1 who covered the spread by 18 points. Next up was San Diego State -1.5 who covered the spread by 33 points. Followed by Nebraska +6.5 covering by 12.5 over UCLA, and finally Baylor +3.5 covering by 14.5 points of margin! Freddy has covered these plays by an average of 19.5 points ATS this bowl season! Freddy backs this big game up with his full in depth analysis guaranteed or New Year's day is FREE!

Clemson +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

When is the last time you saw a #1 team getting 4 points like this on a neutral field. Oklahoma got a lot of credit down the stretch, and a lot of people are saying Clemson has not played anyone and again are getting zero respect which plays right into the hands of Dabo Sweeney's motivation tactics. What else does this team have to do? They beat Oklahoma in last year's bowl game with Deshaun Watson, beat Ohio State the year before and LSU the year before. Oklahoma has come up small in big games for quite a while going 2-5 in their last 7 BCS bowl games and 0-3 in national championships. It's also worth noting that Oklahoma faced the tough part of their schedule with a lot of luck. What I mean by that is they did not have to go up against the starting QB of any of the final 4 teams in Iowa State (almost lost), Baylor, TCU (almost lost), and Oklahoma State. This is also the team that got extremely lucky early in the season to beat Tennessee. I'm just not buying them as a 4 point favorite here and let's look at some more facts.

Clemson is by far the best defense that Oklahoma has faced, they also have the best QB they have faced all year. When you consider Oklahoma struggled when they did face mobile QB's. They were lucky and missed a few good ones, but they faced Texas Heard who rushed for 115 rushing yards when the two faced off. Watson is far superior as poses a passing threat with a canon of an arm. Watson only got better as the season went along. The issue Oklahoma is going to have in this game and probably the reason I like them the most is Clemson's front 7 havoc rate. Clemson is 3rd in sack% and Oklahoma is 104th in sacked %. Baker Mayfield is used to running for his life but not against this caliber of a secondary that held opponents to 46.1 completion percentage and picked off opponents 14 times. Clemson had a net of 49 tackles for loss while Oklahoma came in at +5, but allowed 80 tackles for loss. A huge reason why they only converted 44% of their third downs. Clemson has held opponents to 24.87% conversions on third downs.

If you were initially liking Oklahoma and you still are not sold, because of the suspensions announced today. Deon Cain was not a huge part of this offense. He had 11% of the receptions and another player will step up. What makes Watson so good is he is able to spread the ball around which makes this Oklahoma's most difficult assignment. I think Oklahoma also the more rustier team having not played in a championship game and I think that may be the reason they struggle in these late bowl games. Clemson also had some turnover issues -2 on the season while Oklahoma is at +10, but what really impressed me is they were positive in their three biggest games. When Clemson played Notre Dame they were +3, Florida State +2, and North Carolina +1. Turnovers were not an issue when Clemson knew they had to be at their best. I'll back Clemson here and I hope I have given you plenty of confidence to do so as well!