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RARE MAX Rating POD - Guaranteed

Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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RARE MAX Rating POD - Guaranteed

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:32 pm

Nebraska -3 5.5% play
Thanks for the line movement here. Mike Riley following a bye week during the regular season going back to 2003 with Oregon State is 16-8 ATS and has had many major upsets as a big dog. He’s not an underdog in this game, but I really don’t see or understand the spread in this game. Indiana played well at Ohio State, but that win over Michigan State at home looks a lot worse after Michigan State got trucked by BYU last week in embarrassing fashion. I have this game at 31-22 in favor of Nebraska and that does not factor in the match up advantages and extra preparation they have going into this game.

Both teams wants to establish the run and on the surface it looks like Indiana is better at stopping the run where Nebraska has had troubles, but in reality that’s not true. Nebraska’s game against Oregon has really inflated some of their defensive rankings. Nebraska has held everyone else in check who doesn’t have a running QB. As Oregon’s QB Dakota Prukop had 20 rushes for 97 yards in that game. Indiana’s Richard Lagow has -31 yards on the season. Nebraska’s pass defense is also very solid so far this year 3TD’s and 9 interceptions.

For Nebraska I think they can run the ball in this game. Armstrong is having a very good year passing the ball and not turning it over like he has in the past and he’s got 14 total touch downs with 2 interceptions. 5 of those TD’s have come on the ground has he has 293 yards rushing. That can be a real problem for Indiana’s defense which struggled against JT Barret a week ago who had 137 yards rushing against them. Armstrong in reality is very similar to Barret in a lot of ways, but probably has a bigger arm. Nebraska probably a little more aggressive in down the field passes which should open things up for the Huskers in this one.

Nebraska advantage in the turnover margin which is something I definitely look at despite the bad luck we have had. Indiana has been lucky recovering fumbles at 61.5%, but that certainly is due to change. Their QB Lagow has already thrown 7 interceptions and I can’t see how Nebraska won’t have 1 or 2 in this game. They are a ball hawking defense that has had time to study tendencies of this QB and offense. Nebraska also has advantages in 3rd down offense and defense, and red zone offense and defense, penalties, net tackles for loss at +7 compared to -7, and sacks +8 to -1. Indiana also has not been great with their place kicker. All in all Nebraska a ton to play for here. Indiana getting too much credit for how they beat Michigan State and played within the number against Ohio State. Nebraska has outscored opponents 78-6 in the 4th quarter. I expect them to get off to a fast start in this game off the bye as Indiana has played 3 physical teams in a row.
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