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Hawaii -3 5.5% NCAAF POD
Hawaii has been pretty good in conference play on the road beating San Jose State and Air force before losing badly to San Diego State, but who doesn’t? Hawaii, facing a bad defense in Fresno State who ranks 97th in yards per play allowed. Hawaii vs. bad teams like that have been able to put up 31+ points on a regular basis and that gives them a tremendous edge in this game considering how bad Fresno State’s offense has been which is non-existent. They topped 30 points 1 time all year against an FBS opponent and lost the game.

This is a rivalry game, but Hawaii I feel is better than their record when you consider their losses are against Cal, Arizona, San Diego State, Boise State, and a 3 point loss against UNLV. Add in all of the travel disadvantages this team has and I think they are having a pretty good year. I think they can still get into a bowl game at 6-7 and I’m sure they have that on their mind.
Hawaii will be able to run the ball in this one especially since they had 7+ yards per carry at Boise State. Dru Brown, a mobile QB also should give Fresno issues. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 200+ rushing yards in every game this season and 23 rushing TD’s. Their pass defense has not been any better allowing 20 TD’s to just 3 interceptions. Hawaii’s main issues when they lose is the fact that they turn the ball over. They are -12 alone in their last 3 games, but Fresno has forced just 6 turnovers all year long. Fresno has not shown me any signs of improvement and this is by far the worst offense that Hawaii’s defense has faced. Hawaii’s defense has had quite the stretch facing 9 of their 11 opponents who are in the top 60 in yards per play offense, 6 in the top 40. The other 2 they held to 17 points each which is an encouraging sign for this game. To put that into perspective Fresno has faced 1 POWER 5 opponent, Hawaii has faced 3 + Boise State, and they have faced just 3 teams in the top 40 in yards per play offense.