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Penn State +3.5 -115 5% NCAAF POD – buy ½ if need be.
There are several questions in this game for Penn State, but it all comes down to their ability to stop Wisconsin’s running game in my opinion. That’s something they have done extremely well since they got healthy at linebacker. Wisconsin really does not pose a threat in the passing game with their 2 QB system so it’s all on their running game and defense and I like the match up for Penn State here. Since Jason Cabinda, Penn State’s linebacker came back this has been a shutdown defense. In their last 5 games they have held opponents under 2.70 yards per carry 3 of which they held under 2 yards per carry. We all know when Wisconsin can’t run the ball they struggle to win games.

Penn State simply cannot turn the ball over in this game and they are +9 in turnover margin in their last 8 games. That’s the biggest story of this game. If they do not turn the ball over they win this game. I really like what McSorley has done at QB for Penn State. He has the ability and skilled receivers to test Wisconsin’s defense deep which in reality opens up the running game a little bit even against Wisconsin. Mcsorley also can use his feet to pick up third downs which is an area of weakness for Wisconsin at least in their game against Ohio State and in the red zone against Nebraska.

Penn State has to get off the field on third down to keep their defense fresh in this game. I see a field goal game either way and I love the edge Penn State has in special teams compared to Wisconsin who have struggled at times and rank 69th in special teams. This is also the best offense that Wisconsin has faced all year as Penn State actually ranks 22nd in yards per play compared to 40th for Ohio State. I just love the momentum this team has right now and the defense has enough veteran leadership to keep the game close and I like the edge Penn State has at QB with McSorley.