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New Mexico Bowl - 4.4% NCAAF POD Guaranteed.

PostPosted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:03 pm
by Pick Bot

UTSA +7.5 4.4% POD
This is essentially a home game for New Mexico, but I like the match up and think Texas San Antonio out of Conference USA is a solid bet when you look at the situation and they are going to be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game. New Mexico is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA and even though the Mountain West has a 33-25 record vs. Conference USA that gap has really closed with a 12-12 record since 2010. Take out Boise State’s games and they are 12-9 vs. the Mountain West.
Texas San Antonio clearly had the stronger schedule this year as they faced Texas A&M and Arizona State out of conference while New Mexico faced Rutgers. It doesn’t stop there though as UTSA faced 7 teams with top 50 yards per play offenses or defenses compared to 4 top 50 YPP opponents for New Mexico. New Mexico’s defense is huge concern ranked 108th in yards per play defense and they have faced opponents with weak offenses all year. An average 71 ypp opponent. Over their last 4 games their rushing defense has really struggled allowing over 6 yards per carry and 13 rushing yards. I think they will give up some points in this one. Considering UTSA average 4.67 ypc in their wins vs. 2.91 in their losses that will be the key in this game.

New Mexico’s pass defense however also not the strongest and UTSA’s passing attack is capable with 24 TD’s and only 7 interceptions. The match up I like the best is the fact that UTSA defensive strength is against the run. Their 68th ranking from a YPP perspective does not blow you away, but they have faced many top offenses this year, 5 in the top 50 and 3 in the top 25 + Texas A&M. They’ll face New Mexico and that option attack, but this run stop unit has some extra time to prepare and it’s easy to predict what New Mexico will do.

I like the advantage UTSA has in red zone defense which will be a key in a close game. I feel like the Road Runners will have a shot to pull the upset on the road and getting 7.5 points I’m confident. Conference USA has been really strong in bowl the last 5 years really going 18-8. Meanwhile the Mountain West has struggled a bit going 13-18.