4.4** NCAAF POD Thursday Night Lights! Guaranteed

[Pick Bot]

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Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright. The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs. Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home. Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board.

Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies. Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run. Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs. I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far. Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop. The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville. Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses. Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB. What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game.

Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense. Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success. Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home. Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season. The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents. Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced. The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road. Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%.

The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home. Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all.