Jack's Free Pick Monday: New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss to the Golden State Warriors on Sunday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Pelicans tonight as they were the team with the best record in the NBA.  And they won't have much left in the tank to get margin on the Pelicans.

New Orleans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team.  The Pelicans are playing better of late, too, pulling off two upsets in their last three games over the Wizards (127-102) as 4-point dogs and the Jazz (98-97) as 13.5-point dogs.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now.

New Orleans has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Los Angeles.  The Pelicans won all three meetings outright as underdogs by 13, 17 and 20 points.  That includes their 94-81 upset win 10 days ago on November 19th.  New Orleans is 36-16 ATS in the last 52 meetings and just owns this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New Orleans) - a cold team having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against an opponent that has lost four or five of their last six games are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

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15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-10 SU & 13-5-2 ATS in their 20 games despite battling through injuries all season.  But now they are about as healthy as they have been since the start of the season with pretty much every important player on the court other than Collin Sexton, who is out for the season.

But Sexton's injury hasn't slowed down the Cavaliers.  They have gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by just 5 to Brooklyn, by 5 to Phoenix and crushing Orlando by 13.  They are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Dallas Mavericks are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and getting too much respect here again tonight.  They were 6.5-point favorites against Washington last time out and lost by 6.  And now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against this feisty Cleveland team.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  The Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Cleveland is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Dallas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -5.5

The Chicago Bulls are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They just recently got Nikola Vucevic back and now are as healthy as they have been all season with him and Coby White in the lineup.  This is one of the best rosters in the NBA.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bulls and 'sell high' on the Hornets, who have gone 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  It's a tired Hornets team playing their 7th game in 11 days and in their 7th different city as well.  Look for them to be flat tonight, and that showed last time out in their upset road loss to the Houston Rockets, 143-146.

Chicago owns Charlotte.  The Bulls are have 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 21, 17 and 13 points.  Chicago is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Charlotte is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.

Plays against road underdogs (Charlotte) in a game involving two good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36.5%, after two straight games where they made 16 or more 3-pointers are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +31.5

Tarleton State has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the entire country and has been competitive against some very good teams.  So they won't be phased by having to play Gonzaga tonight, and I look for them to stay within this massive number.

Tarleton lost by 12 at Stanford, by 26 at Kansas, by 14 at Wichita State, by 1 at North Dakota State and by 11 at Michigan.  So they haven't lost by this margin all season and have faced two of the best teams in the country in Kansas and Michigan.

This is a letdown spot for Gonzaga.  They just played UCLA and Duke in back-to-back games, and now they have another huge game on deck against Alabama.  That makes this s a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think they'll be giving Tarleton State the full attention they deserve tonight.

Gonzaga is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  The Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Tarleton State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Tarleton State Monday.

15* Iowa/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued right now after a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season against an extremely soft schedule.  They have played the 355th-ranked schedule in the country with all six games at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time this season at Virginia and this is a massive step up in competition.

Virginia is 5-2 this season against a much tougher schedule.  Obviously the loss to Navy in the opener was a bad loss, but the other came against Houston on the road, and Houston is one of the best teams in the country.

The Cavaliers have since rebounded nicely with four straight blowout victories all by 10 points or more, including a 10-point win over Georgia and an upset win over Providence by 18.  They are the more battle-tested team and will be ready for a game against a team that caliber of Iowa.

Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Take Virginia Monday.

20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK

The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.

But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks.  In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.

Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going.  The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games.  They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.  

The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention.  Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests.  They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game.  To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season.  Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.  Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  Bet Washington Monday.