Jack's Free Pick Monday: Miami Heat +8.5

There's clear value on the Miami Heat in Game 4 when you compare this to the Game 3 line. The Heat closed as 5-point home underdogs in Game 3 and now are 8.5-point home underdogs in Game 4. That assumes the Heat are just going to fold, which I don't expect to be the case.

We saw the Thunder take a lot of money and close 15.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies in Game 4 when they were going for the sweep. They were life and death in that game despite the Grizzlies not having JA Morant. They eventually won by 2. Considering what the Heat have been through this season and in the playoffs, I don't expect them to just quit.

The Heat actually ranked #1 in the NBA in net rating (+14) over the final 12 games of the regular season. Eric Spoelstra has shown once again why is is one of the best coaches in the NBA getting the most out of another Miami Heat team.

The Heat went on the road in two must-win games and beat the Bulls by 19 and the Hawks by 9 to become the first No. 10 seed ever to quality for the playoffs. They ran out of gas late in Game 1 against Cleveland, but it was still an 8-point game entering the 4th quarter before the Cavs pulled away.

The Heat came back refreshed in Game 2 and gave the Cavs all they could handle in a 121-112 loss as 12-point underdogs. Nothing went right in Game 3 as the Cavaliers shot 53% compared to just 42% for Miami and only 7 made free throws for the Heat. That 124-87 blowout has inflated this line for Game 4, and I expect some positive shooting regression in Miami's favor tonight. Bet the Heat Monday.

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15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Rangers OVER 9

Patrick Corbin has finished with a 5.20 ERA or higher while making at least 31 starts in each of his last four seasons with the Nationals. He is legitimately one of the worst starters in baseball. The Rangers took a chance on him last season and it's only a matter of time before he completely blows up again. He's fortunate to have a 3.77 ERA considering he has a 1.54 WHIP in his three starts thus far for the Rangers.

JP Sears is 25-32 with a 4.29 ERA in 80 starts and six relief appearances in his career for the A's. I like the fact that Sears just faced the Rangers on April 23rd in his last start, while Corbin just faced the A's on April 22nd in his last start. The advantage always goes to the hitters getting to face these starting pitchers for a 2nd time in a week. Corbin allowed 9 base runners and 2 homers in 5 innings in an 8-5 win over the A's on April 22nd. Sears allowed 2 earned runs and a homer in 5 innings in his start against the Rangers. Both should get shelled tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Yankees/Orioles AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with light winds blowing out to left field in Baltimore tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket. The Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game. The Orioles have been in a funk thus far offensively, but they can't be held down for long with all their talent. More concerning is the Orioles ranking 28th in baseball allowing 5.4 runs per game.

Will Warren is 1-0 with a 4.79 ERA in five starts this season allowing 11 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings for the Yankees. The Yankees have a taxed bullpen after playing a double-header with the Blue Jays on Sunday, and Warren's inability to go deep into games will be a problem for them today. He is averaging just over 4 innings per start.

Tomoyuki Sugano has been a bit of a disappointment for the Orioles this season allowing 6 homers in 28 innings with only 9 K's. Pitching to contact does not work in MLB these days, and Sugano also fails to go deep into games averaging 5.1 innings per start. The Orioles also played a double-header on Saturday and their bullpen is taxed. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MLB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight. The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in four of their last five games coming in with the OVER going 4-1 in those five games with 11 or more combined runs in four of them. The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season. They are 18-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.4 runs per game but ranking 29th in baseball allowing 5.6 runs per game. The OVER is 12-3 in Marlins last 15 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 15 games.

Edward Cabrera went 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 20 starts for the Marlins last season. He is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in three starts for the Marlins this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 2/3 innings. Cabrera hates facing the Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 15.30 ERA in three career starts against them, allowing 17 earned runs in 10 innings. The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.

Dustin May was due some regression after a very soft schedule to start the season. Regression hit him hard in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs and 13 base runners in 5 innings to the Cubs. I don't expect him to fully shut down the Marlins tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9

Temps will be in the 70's with almost no wind as the ball should be flying out at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs. The Reds rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.4 runs per game. The Cardinals rank 10th scoring 4.6 runs per game.

The Reds are scoring 7.7 runs per game in their last 10 games. They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 16 games. They should stay hot against Andre Pallante, who has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in. Pallante allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.

The Cardinals should feast on Nick Martinez, who is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season while allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 26 2/3 innings. He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in his two home starts this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Rockets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Houston +4

The Houston Rockets shot 39.1% from the field and 11-of-20 (5%) from the FT line in their Game 1 loss. They bounced back to shoot 45.3% from the field and 16-of-20 (80%) from the FT line in Game 2 in a 109-94 blowout win.

The Rockets shot 39.5% from the field and 14-of-24 (58.3%) from the FT line in Game 3. I expect them to have some positive shooting regression in Game 4 and bounce back from their Game 3 loss just as they did in Game 2 bouncing back from their Game 1 loss largely due to poor shooting.

The Warriors simply rely too much on Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to do the bulk of their scoring. Curry had a monster game with 36 points in Game 3 to put the Warriors on his back. But he won't be as good in Game 4 as I expect the Rockets to make the proper adjustments to double-team him and make others beat them. And even if Jimmy Butler plays he will be nowhere near 100%.

Jalen Green stepped up in Game 2 and scored 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting. He was too passive in Game 3 going just 4-of-11 shooting for 9 points. Look for him to be much more aggressive in Game 4 as he is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. And the Rockets are just the deeper team in general and elite defensively. Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Monday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Marlins/Dodgers OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Marlins and Dodgers tonight. There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 60's in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are heating up at the plate scoring 4.8 runs per game on the season and 6 runs or more in five of their last six games coming in with the OVER going 5-1 in those six games with 11 or more combined runs in five of them. The only game that went under was a pitcher's duel between aces in Skenes and Yamamoto.

The Miami Marlins have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team this season. They are 19-9 OVER in all games scoring 4.5 runs per game but ranking 29th in baseball allowing 5.7 runs per game. The OVER is 13-3 in Marlins last 16 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 16 games.

The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in nine of those 10 meetings. Sandy Alcantara is 2-3 with a 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in six career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 27 earned runs and 8 homers in 29 innings. The Dodgers will be making this a bullpen game as their staff is in a world of hurt right now due to injuries. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Pistons/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +5.5

The Detroit Pistons easily could have swept the Knicks, but instead they are down 3-1. Their last two losses came by a combined 3 points, and they were jobbed by the refs not calling a foul on a Tim Hardaway 3-pointer at the buzzer in Game 4. He for sure would have made at least 2 of 3 free throws, and this series would be tied 2-2. The other loss came in Game 1 after blowing an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter.

You could argue the Pistons have been the better team in this series. They have a nice mix of youngsters and veterans, and I trust them to show up with a big effort in Game 5 tonight. The Knicks keep having to make difficult, contested shots especially Towns and Brunson. They also lack depth and both factors will catch up to them sooner rather than later. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on DBacks/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Diamondbacks and Mets tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center at Citi Field in New York.

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series. The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the majors scoring 5.4 runs per game. The Mets rank 9th scoring 4.7 runs per game. The OVER is 5-0 in DBacks last five games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all five games. The Mets scored 32 runs in their last series against the Nationals and have scored at least 4 runs in nine of their last 11 games overall.

Eduardo Rodriquez has allowed 14 earned runs in 28 1/3 innings in his five starts this season for a 4.40 ERA. Rodriquez allowed 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his lone start against the Mets last season. David Peterson is due some regression for the Mets tonight and it will hit him hard given the forecast. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Nationals and Phillies tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.4 runs per game this season. They are capable of more offensively. The Nationals are scoring 4.2 runs per game but rank 27th in baseball allowing 5.2 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

MacKenzie Gore is due some regression with a 3.34 ERA in six starts this season. Gore is 23-29 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his career. He allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his last road starts against the Phillies to fall to 0-3 with a 9.15 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in four career starts at Philadelphia.

Zack Wheeler hasn't exactly held the Nationals in check. He has a 4.56 ERA in his last eight starts against them and a 4.44 ERA in 18 career home starts against the Nationals. Both starters are getting too much respect tonight given the forecast. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Reds tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left inside hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

These are two underrated offenses with suspect pitching staffs. The Reds rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.3 runs per game. The Cardinals rank 12th scoring 4.5 runs per game. The Reds are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games. They have scored at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 17 games.

The Reds will stay hot against Miles Mikolas, who is 0-2 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 15 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings. Mikolas does not enjoy facing the Reds, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them. He is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati.

Brady Singer has allowed 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 28 base runners in 20 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Singer allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 3 innings in his lone career start against the Cardinals. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cubs/Pirates NL Central ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Cubs and Pirates tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field in Pittsburgh.

The Cubs rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.9 runs per game this season. The OVER is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings with 8 or more combined runs in 17 of those 21 meetings, and 9 or more combined runs in 16 of those.

Imanaga and Heaney have been solid this season, but both are due some regression and it will likely hit them both given the forecast. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Yankees and Orioles tonight. Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in Baltimore.

The Yankees rank 2nd in MLB scoring 5.5 runs per game this season. The Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game and capable of much more. But the Orioles rank 28th in baseball allowing 5.4 runs per game with a dreadful staff.

Carlos Rodon has allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 30 2/3 innings this season. Rodon has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles.

Kyle Gibson will be making his first start of the season for the Orioles and will be on a pitch count. Gibson has a 4.52 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in his career. He posted a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts in 2022, a 4.73 ERA in 33 starts in 2023 and a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts in 2024. The 37-year old is washed up. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-135)

The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season while the Chicago White Sox are scoring 3.4 runs per game. The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound and at the plate tonight that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.

Freddy Peralta is 55-38 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his career in the big leagues. Peralta is 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in six starts this season. He has held the White Sox to just 3 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them.

Tyler Gilbert is basically an opener for the White Sox. He won't go deep into this game. Gilbert is 3-8 with a 4.35 ERA in his career and 1-1. with a 5.87 ERA in 2025. This is a tough spot for the White Sox, who return home from a 10-game road trip that concluded in Sacramento. Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles ML -122

The Clippers have clearly been the better team in this series despite it being tied 2-2. The Clippers have outscored the Nuggets by 33 points in the four games. They could have easily swept the Nuggets as both of Denver's wins came by exactly 2 points with one in OT and one at the buzzer.

The Clippers will take control of this series in Game 5 and are favored for good reason. They are the deeper, more talented team. They are fully healthy, while the Nuggets are dealing with injuries to Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets have the worst bench in the NBA left in the playoffs and it will catch up to them sooner rather than later. They just rely so much on one player in Jokic. Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Tuesday.