1* Free Pick on Ohio +7

The number for this MAC rivalry is simply too high.
Ohio is catching 7.5 points in a matchup they have historically dominated at the betting window.
The Bobcats are a staggering 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with Kent State.

The Golden Flashes are in a major "fatigue spot" tonight.
They are coming off a grueling double-overtime win against Eastern Michigan this past Saturday.
That follows another overtime battle against Miami-Ohio just four days prior to that.
Kent State has played a ton of high-intensity basketball over the last week and their legs will be heavy in the second half.

The betting market hasn't adjusted to Kent States recent inability to cover.
The Flashes are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall.
They are also struggling to separate from conference opponents, with their last three games decided by six points or fewer.

Ohio has some defensive vulnerabilities, but they play at a pace that keeps them within striking distance.
They rank near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage and free-throw shooting.
In a game that should be played in the mid-70s, getting nearly three full possessions of cushion is a gift.

Kent State may find a way to win this game at home, but they don't have the energy to run away with it.
The Bobcats are battle-tested and should keep this within two buckets until the final whistle.

I like the Ohio +7.5 (-110)

Todays premium card features six total selections across the NBA, NCAA-B, and NCAA-F. These releases represent my top-rated research and provide a professional edge for the current slate. My full daily card and various long-term packages can be found on my premium picks page.

View Premium Picks

3* HEAVY HITTER on Loyola-Chicago +3

The public is going to be all over St. Joe's in this spot after their big win over Dayton on Saturday. That is exactly why we are looking the other direction with the home dog.

St. Joe's is a completely different team when they leave Philadelphia. The Hawks are a dominant 11-2 at home but have been a disaster on the road with a 1-6 record this season.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks. Teams often struggle to find that same intensity in a road gym right after a emotional win over a top-tier conference opponent.

Loyola-Chicago has struggled through a seven-game losing streak but they are due for a bounce-back at the Gentile Arena. Despite the recent slump, the Ramblers have historically won 11 of their last 13 home night games against Atlantic 10 competition.

The matchup in the paint will be a defensive battle. St. Joe's has a premier rim protector in Justice Ajogbor, but Loyola counters with Miles Rubin who is one of the top shot-blockers in the country.

Loyola has dealt with a banged-up backcourt with Justin Moore and Kayde Dotson missing time recently. However, the Ramblers have enough depth with Nic Anderson and Deywilk Tavarez to keep this game within a possession.

The line is telling the story here. If St. Joe's were as good as their recent win suggests, they should be favored by more than 3.5 against a five-win team.

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the favorite, but the Hawks' road shooting and turnover issues make them a risky play. Trust the home-court urgency for a Loyola team desperate to snap their skid.

Bet Loyola-Chicago +3.5.

5* NO BRAINER of the Month on Arizona State +8

Arizona State is getting too many points in this spot after proving they can compete with the upper tier of the Big 12.
The Sun Devils are fresh off a dominant 14-point win over Cincinnati and have shown they can handle hostile environments.

Arizona State has been a bankable underdog all season with a 7-4 record against the spread in that role.
The main reason for this late-season surge is the play of guard Moe Odum.

Odum is the engine of this offense and is coming off a massive 33-point masterpiece where he dominated every facet of the game.
He gives the Sun Devils a legitimate closer who can create his own shot when the shot clock winds down.

UCF has a glossy 15-4 record but they have been a major disappointment for bettors when asked to lay wood.
The Knights are just 4-6 against the spread as favorites this season and frequently let teams hang around late.

Arizona State is thin in the rotation with Marcus Adams Jr. and Adante Holiman still sidelined with injuries.
Even with a short bench, the Sun Devils have played with a high level of defensive intensity that keeps them in every contest.

UCF relies on second-chance points and transition buckets to fuel their offense.
Arizona State matches up well here because they have the length and speed to disrupt passing lanes and limit easy looks.

The Knights are coming off a high-scoring road win at Colorado and are in a prime letdown spot returning home.
Asking them to cover nearly double digits against a team with the guard play of ASU is a tall order.

Expect the Sun Devils to dictate the tempo and force UCF into a half-court game where the Knights often struggle to execute.
This should be a two-possession game right down to the final buzzer.

Bet Arizona State +8.5.

5* NO BRAINER on East -104

The East enters this matchup with a big physical edge along the offensive line that will be the main factor tonight.
Because the Shrine Bowl rules ban defensive stunts and blitzes, this game becomes a pure one-on-one battle in the trenches.
That is a massive advantage for an East squad that features a much heavier and more experienced interior group.
Without the ability to use creative pressure, the West defensive front will struggle to generate a steady pass rush against these massive blockers.

The West offensive line looked out of sync throughout the practice week in Frisco.
They had major issues with footwork and protection hand-offs which is a recipe for disaster in a live-game environment.
Even with limited defensive schemes, the East's defensive line has the raw power to collapse the pocket and force the West quarterbacks into quick decisions.
All-star games usually favor the defense early, but these specific rules give a slight edge to a team that can run the ball effectively.

The East offensive staff is running a simple, pro-style rushing attack that does not require complex timing.
This limits the risk of turnovers and keeps the West's playmakers off the field.
The West is trying to use a more complex passing game that just isn't ready for game speed after only four days of practice.
Expect the East to win the battle for time of possession and stay ahead of the chains on early downs.

When you can control the line of scrimmage in a game where defenses can't blitz, you control the final score.
The East is the more disciplined unit and their size will wear down the West by the second half.
This moneyline price is essentially a pick'em, and the value is on the more physical roster.

I like the East ML (-104).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Suns -8

The Brooklyn Nets are walking into a buzzsaw tonight in the desert.

Their primary offensive engine, Cam Thomas, is officially sidelined with a left ankle injury.

Losing Thomas leaves a massive scoring void that this depleted Brooklyn roster simply cannot fill.

The Nets are currently in the middle of a brutal five-game Western road swing and the fatigue is already setting in.

They looked gassed in a double-digit loss to the Clippers on Sunday and now face a Phoenix team that already beat them on the road last week.

Phoenix won that previous matchup by nine points and they should have an even easier time on their home floor.

The Suns are playing elite basketball right now and sit ten games over .500 for the season.

While Devin Booker is nursing an ankle sprain, the Suns have plenty of firepower left in the chamber with Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.

Phoenix has a massive edge in eFG% and should dominate the perimeter matchups from the opening tip.

Brooklyn is also missing key depth pieces like Nolan Traore and Noah Clowney due to illness and back issues.

That leaves the Nets with a bench rotation that is completely outclassed at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The Nets have only managed 12 wins all season and are clearly a team looking toward the lottery.

Phoenix has been a covering machine lately, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of eight or more.

The Suns defensive rating at home is top-ten in the league and they will suffocate a Thomas-less offense.

Without their lead guard to break down the defense, the Nets will struggle to find consistent looks in the half-court.

Expect the Suns to push the pace early and bury this tired Brooklyn squad before the fourth quarter even starts.

This line is far too short for a team missing its only legitimate scoring threat on a long road trip.

I like the Suns -8.5 (-105)

5* NO BRAINER on Clippers -9

The Clippers are in a prime spot to dismantle a Utah defense that has completely fallen apart. Utah ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and they are giving up way too many open looks from deep.

Los Angeles enters this game ranking in the top five in effective field goal percentage over their last two weeks of play. They have the shooters to bury a Jazz team that lacks any real perimeter length or discipline.

Utah is also struggling with basic ball security right now. They are coughing it up nearly 16 times per game, which plays right into the hands of an aggressive Clippers defense.

The Clippers have been dominant in transition recently, leading the league in points off turnovers during this road trip. They will turn every Utah mistake into an easy bucket on the other end.

Both teams played on Sunday, but the Clippers had a much easier flight from Phoenix than the Jazz did coming back from the altitude in Denver. Utah looked gassed in the second half of that loss and their legs will be heavy tonight.

The Jazz are also missing significant depth in their frontcourt due to recent injuries. They simply do not have the bodies to keep the Clippers off the offensive glass or protect the rim.

Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when favored on the road. They have shown a consistent ability to stay focused and cover large numbers against losing teams.

The talent gap here is far wider than this single-digit spread suggests. This line should be closer to 12 points based on how poorly Utah has played on the defensive end lately.

Utah does not have the scoring punch to keep up once the Clippers start hitting from the outside. Expect a double-digit blowout that is over by the middle of the fourth quarter.

I like the Clippers -9.5.