4* VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz +114

The Memphis Grizzlies are essentially fielding a G-League roster tonight with an injury list that reads like a medical textbook.
Star guard Ja Morant is sidelined with an elbow injury, and the frontcourt is completely gutted with Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, and Santi Aldama all ruled out.

The Jazz are dealing with their own health issues, including the absence of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Keyonte George, but they still have the hammer in this matchup.
Lauri Markkanen is the best player on the floor by a wide margin, averaging 26.7 points and seven rebounds per game this season.

Memphis has lost consecutive games and their depth is non-existent right now, forcing heavy minutes onto secondary options like Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer.
The Grizzlies already struggle with efficiency at home, ranking as the ninth-worst three-point shooting team in the league when playing at FedExForum.

Utah plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and will look to turn this into a track meet against a depleted Memphis bench.
Without Edey or Clarke to protect the rim, the Jazz should have no trouble scoring in the paint and getting to the line.

The Jazz already went into Memphis and walked away with a 130-126 win back in December, and that was against a much healthier Grizzlies squad.
This line is priced like these teams are on equal footing, but the talent gap created by the Memphis injury report is massive.

I expect Markkanen to carry the load early and the Jazz to pull away late against a tired rotation.
Getting plus money on the better-rested and more talented side is the clear sharp play here.

Bet Jazz ML (+114).

1* Free Pick on Canisius +105

This is a battle between the two teams at the bottom of the MAAC, but the wrong side is favored here. Rider is sitting on a miserable 3-22 record and has managed only two conference wins all season long.

Canisius is currently mired in an 11-game losing streak, but they have still been the more competitive team. The Golden Griffins have more than double the total wins of Rider and possess a much higher ceiling on the offensive end.

Kahlil Singleton and Bryan Ndjonga both average over 13 points per game for the Griffs. They should have a field day against a Rider defense that allows nearly 77 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the country in efficiency.

Rider is especially bad at defending the perimeter, giving up almost nine three-pointers per contest. Canisius has the shooters to stretch the floor and exploit those wide-open looks all night.

The Broncs have also been a nightmare for bettors when expected to win. They are winless against the spread this season in the rare spots where they have been listed as the favorite.

Canisius moves the ball much better in the half-court, averaging significantly more assists per game than a stagnant Rider offense. While Anthony Benard is out and Andreo Ash is questionable, the Griffs' primary scoring options are healthy and ready to go.

Rider just gave up 86 points in a double-digit loss to Sacred Heart and has shown no signs of fixing their defensive rotations. Even on the road, Canisius has the better talent and the better shooting to pull off the minor upset.

We are getting plus-money on the better team in a matchup where both sides are desperate to snap a slide. Trust the Golden Griffins to finally break their losing streak against the worst team in the conference.

I like the Canisius ML (+105).

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5* NO BRAINER on St. Peter's +105

St. Peters is catching a short price here despite owning the most physical defensive profile in the MAAC. The Peacocks have turned into a total nightmare for high-tempo teams like Iona that want to run and gun.

Bashir Mason has this squad locked in on the defensive end. St. Peters currently ranks in the top tier nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

They force teams to play in the half-court and grind out every single possession. That is exactly where Iona falls apart.

The Gaels have struggled with ball security over their last three games. They are coughing it up 15 times per contest during this recent stretch.

St. Peters thrives on those mistakes and converts them into easy transition points. This is also a major revenge spot for the Peacocks after a tough home loss to Iona last month.

The Peacocks have been road warriors lately. They have covered the spread in five of their last six games away from home.

Iona relies way too much on the three-point shot to stay in games. That is a massive problem against this perimeter defense.

St. Peters is holding opponents to just 28% from deep over the last four weeks. They close out hard and do not give up second-chance looks.

The Peacocks also have a significant edge on the glass. They are top-50 in offensive rebounding rate and should dominate the put-back points tonight.

Iona does not have the size inside to keep St. Peter's off the boards for forty minutes. Expect a low-scoring scrap that favors the tougher team.

The Peacocks are playing for seeding and look like the more motivated group right now. Take the plus money with the better defensive unit.

Bet St. Peter's ML (+105).

5* NO BRAINER on Rockies +120

Arizona's roster is shredded with injuries to start this spring and they are being given way too much credit on this line.

Corbin Carroll is sidelined with a fractured hamate bone and won't be anywhere near the lineup for the Diamondbacks.

The pitching staff is even worse off with ace Corbin Burnes and high-leverage lefty A.J. Puk both recovering from major surgeries.

Arizona's bullpen is essentially a ghost town after Andrew Saalfrank and Justin Martinez were also ruled out for the long haul.

Colorado is bringing a much healthier group to the plate today at Salt River Fields.

Young stars like Ezequiel Tovar and Zac Veen are fully healthy and motivated to make an impact in the opening week of the Cactus League.

Mickey Moniak and Tyler Freeman are both in camp and provide roster depth that the Diamondbacks simply cannot match right now.

Arizona will be forced to rely on deep minor league arms and non-roster invitees for the bulk of these innings while their stars recover.

The Rockies traditionally play their primary hitters longer in these early spring games to get their timing down in the desert air.

With Arizona missing their best hitter and three of their most important arms, getting +120 on the Rockies is a massive gift.

The depth and motivation in the Colorado dugout are the clear differences for this Friday afternoon matchup.

Bet Rockies ML (+120).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cavs -4

Cleveland is the hottest team in the NBA. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and are currently riding a six-game winning streak.

The Cavs are on the second night of a back-to-back, but the schedule spot isn't a concern. They blew out Brooklyn on Thursday and rested all their starters for the entire fourth quarter.

No Cleveland starter played more than 28 minutes in that victory. They will arrive in Charlotte with plenty of energy and momentum.

The return of Evan Mobley has transformed their interior defense. He looked sharp in his return to the lineup on Thursday and gives them an elite rim protector to pair with Jarrett Allen.

Charlotte sits at 26-30 and continues to struggle with consistency. While they have a rest advantage, they lack the defensive personnel to match Clevelands rotations.

The Hornets are giving up too many easy looks in the paint. Clevelands frontcourt should dominate the rebounding battle and generate frequent second-chance points.

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland backcourt are playing at an elite level. They rank near the top of the league in eFG% during this current winning stretch and are moving the ball efficiently.

Charlotte doesn't have the perimeter defenders to contain Cleveland's star guards for 48 minutes. The talent gap is simply too wide in this matchup.

The Cavs have covered the spread in five of their last six games. They are 35-21 and playing like a legitimate title contender in the Eastern Conference.

This line is only -4.5 because of the back-to-back situation. Take the discount on the superior team while they are firing on all cylinders.

I like the Cavs -4.5.

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Heat -2

Miami dominates this matchup because they have the better defensive structure to handle Atlanta's offensive pace. They use a physical, switch-heavy scheme that takes away easy looks and forces the Hawks into contested mid-range shots.

The Heat have won eight of their last 12 meetings against Atlanta. Erik Spoelstra consistently finds ways to exploit the Hawks lack of defensive discipline, especially in half-court sets.

Getting Tyler Herro back is the biggest edge for the Heat tonight. He returns from a 15-game absence, providing a massive scoring boost and much-needed spacing for Bam Adebayo to operate inside.

Both teams are coming off the All-Star break with fresh legs. Historically, veteran-led teams like Miami come out of the break more prepared than younger, high-variance teams like Atlanta.

The Hawks are dealing with a significant loss in the frontcourt with Jonathan Kuminga sidelined. His absence hurts their rim protection and leaves them vulnerable to Miamis aggressive drives.

Atlantas interior defense is currently a bottom-five unit in the league. They give up way too many easy buckets in the paint, which plays right into the hands of a physical Miami offense.

Miami also holds a major advantage on the offensive glass. They are one of the best teams in the league at generating second-chance points, which will be a killer for a thin Hawks rotation.

Atlanta relies far too much on three-point shooting to keep games close. Miamis perimeter defense is elite, and they excel at closing out and running shooters off the line.

Lay the small number with the more disciplined and healthier squad. The Heat are built for the post-break grind, while Atlanta still has too many holes on the defensive end.

Bet Heat -2.5 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on South Dakota +100

South Dakota is the better team in this spot despite being on the road. The Coyotes have been much more consistent on the defensive end over the last three weeks.

Oral Roberts is struggling to find any kind of rhythm right now. They have dropped four of their last five games and the offense has gone cold.

The Golden Eagles are giving up too many easy looks at the rim. They rank near the bottom of the Summit League in effective field goal percentage defense.

South Dakota thrives on taking care of the basketball. They are one of the best teams in the conference at limiting turnovers and maximizing possessions.

Extra shots will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Oral Roberts does not force enough mistakes to keep the Coyotes out of their offensive sets.

The Coyotes are also the superior team at the free-throw line. In a game with a short line, hitting shots at the stripe is critical for a road underdog.

Oral Roberts is coming off a very physical game on Thursday night. They looked tired down the stretch and have not had enough time to recover their legs.

South Dakota won the first meeting this year by double digits. They have the size inside to dominate the rebounding battle and limit second-chance points.

The market is still giving Oral Roberts too much credit for their historical home-court advantage. The reality is this current roster is not performing at that elite level.

South Dakota is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight road games. They are comfortable playing away from home and usually start games with high intensity.

Take the team that plays better defense and shoots a higher percentage from the floor.

I like the South Dakota ML (+100).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Liberty -8

Liberty is playing at a level right now that most mid-majors simply cannot match.
The Flames enter this game on a 17-game winning streak and have been nearly untouchable in their own building all season.

They rank among the national leaders in effective field goal percentage and rarely beat themselves with mental mistakes.
The Flames play a disciplined, slow-tempo style that forces opponents to defend for the full 30 seconds every possession.

Western Kentucky wants to push the pace, but they do not have the defensive discipline to stop Libertys half-court execution.
The Hilltoppers just gave up 87 points to Delaware and have struggled to get stops consistently throughout February.

Injuries are also starting to catch up with the Western Kentucky frontcourt at the worst possible time.
Missing both Bryant Selebangue and Louie Semona has left the Hilltoppers thin and extremely vulnerable in the paint.

Liberty is going to exploit that lack of size and depth with constant movement and high-percentage looks near the rim.
Even though the Flames played a close game last night, their system is built on precision and spacing rather than raw athleticism.

Fatigue is rarely an issue for a team that shoots this well and executes this efficiently in its own arena.
The Flames have covered the spread in 13 of their last 20 home games because they don't let up when they have a lead.

Western Kentucky is a miserable 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road contests and lacks the bench depth to keep up for 40 minutes.
Liberty already beat them by seven points on the road earlier this year and is much more explosive at home.

Back in Lynchburg, this margin should be in the double digits by the middle of the second half.
The Flames will use their superior shooting and ball security to wear down a depleted Hilltoppers roster.

I like the Liberty -8 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Monmouth +170

Monmouth is catching a massive price here against a Charleston team that is starting to show some cracks.

The Cougars rely almost entirely on the three-point shot to generate their offense.

When those shots do not fall, they do not have a reliable interior game to fall back on.

Monmouth ranks in the top tier of the conference in three-point percentage defense this season.

They run shooters off the line and force opponents into tough, contested mid-range jumpers.

Charleston is also coming off a physical, high-stakes battle against UNCW this past Thursday night.

That kind of emotional and physical drain usually leads to heavy legs in the second half of a Saturday afternoon matchup.

Monmouth comes into this one with plenty of rest and a major revenge motive after losing the first meeting at the buzzer.

The Hawks are one of the most efficient teams in the league at forcing turnovers and scoring in transition.

Charleston struggles with ball security when they are pressured in the half-court.

Monmouths backcourt is veteran-heavy and will not be rattled by the crowd noise in this environment.

The market is overvaluing Charleston based on their name brand and home-court advantage.

The Cougars' defensive efficiency has dropped significantly over their last five games.

They are giving up way too many second-chance points because they fail to box out on the perimeter.

Monmouth has the length to exploit that weakness and create extra possessions throughout the game.

I am betting on the more desperate team with the better defensive matchup.

The value on the moneyline is too high to pass up in a rivalry game that should be priced as a toss-up.

Bet Monmouth ML (+170).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Auburn -165

Auburn at Neville Arena is the toughest out in the SEC. They are nearly impossible to beat at home because of the crowd noise and their high-pressure defensive scheme.

The Tigers rank in the top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They make every look difficult and consistently run opponents off the three-point line.

Kentucky is a high-octane offensive team, but they struggle when they cannot get easy buckets in transition. Auburns transition defense is elite and will force the Wildcats into a slow half-court grind.

The stats show Auburn is forcing turnovers on over 20% of defensive possessions when playing in "The Jungle." Kentucky has been sloppy with the ball on the road lately, particularly in loud environments.

The Wildcats also have a major vulnerability regarding rim protection. Auburns frontcourt should dominate the offensive glass and earn frequent trips to the free-throw line.

Auburn has had three full days to prepare for this Saturday night showdown. Kentucky is coming off a physical midweek battle and may lack the legs to keep up for forty minutes.

In a high-stakes SEC game like this, the home team almost always dictates the tempo. Auburn will use their depth to wear down the Kentucky guards by the middle of the second half.

The moneyline price is fair for a team that has won over 90% of its home games over the last two seasons. Auburn is the more balanced team and the venue provides a massive edge.

I like the Auburn ML (-165).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Texas A&M -103

Texas A&M is the most physical team in the SEC and they prove it by dominating the glass every night. The Aggies currently rank in the top ten nationally in scoring and they live on second-chance opportunities.

They just out-rebounded Ole Miss by 14 on Wednesday and snatched 16 offensive boards in that win. Oklahoma does not have the interior size or the toughness to stop that kind of pressure for a full 40 minutes.

The Sooners have completely fallen apart in conference play with a dismal 3-10 record in the SEC. They have lost eight of their last ten games and are coming off a demoralizing 23-point blowout loss to Tennessee.

Oklahomas defensive rating is one of the worst in the country and they allow nearly 78 points per game. Texas A&M won the first meeting this season by seven points and they have now won three straight in this head-to-head series.

The Aggies play at the 14th-fastest pace in the country and will tire out an Oklahoma rotation that lacks defensive depth. Forward Rashaun Agee is coming off a massive double-double and should have his way against a soft Sooners frontcourt.

While Oklahoma is 10-4 at home, they have lost four of their last five in Norman when facing top-tier competition. Texas A&M is a seasoned road team that has won 11 of their last 19 games away from home.

The Aggies are simply more efficient at finding high-percentage looks at the rim while Oklahoma settles for contested jumpers. This line is essentially a pick'em but the talent gap and recent form point toward a clear Aggie victory.

Bet Texas A&M ML (-103).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Stanford +115

Stanford is catching plus money in a massive revenge spot tonight. They lost the first meeting of the season on their own floor and have been circling this date ever since.

The Cardinal have been extremely comfortable in Berkeley lately. They have covered the spread in four of their last five trips to Haas Pavilion and match up well against this Cal roster.

Kyle Smith has this team playing efficient basketball despite a recent rough patch in the win-loss column. Freshman star Okorie is playing at an elite level and just broke the schools freshman scoring record.

He is the most explosive athlete on the floor tonight and Cal does not have a single defender who can stay in front of him. The Bears are coming off a high-shooting performance against Boston College that feels like an outlier.

Cal knocked down 48% of their threes in that win but they rank outside the top 100 nationally in season-long shooting efficiency. Stanfords perimeter defense is designed to run teams off the line and force tough mid-range looks.

The Cardinal are also much better on the glass than they showed in the first meeting. Expect them to control the defensive boards and limit the second-chance points that fueled Cals victory in January.

This rivalry game usually comes down to the final two minutes and I want the better coach and the better player on my side. Stanford has the higher ceiling when they are focused and the underdog price is a gift.

The situational edge is heavy for the visitors who are looking to avoid the season sweep. Take the better value with the team that has the motivation and the historical edge in this building.

Bet Stanford ML (+115).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee Tech +123

Tennessee Tech is catching a generous price as a home underdog tonight. Theyve picked up major steam lately with wins in five of their last seven games.

The Golden Eagles are coming off a dominant defensive effort. They held SIU Edwardsville to just 52 points in their last outing on Thursday and look completely locked in on that end of the floor.

This is a massive revenge spot for Tech. Lindenwood embarrassed them by 21 points back in January and the Golden Eagles have had this rematch circled ever since.

Lindenwood is starting to show serious cracks away from home. They are coming off a road loss at Tennessee State where they coughed up 19 turnovers and struggled to find any rhythm.

Techs defense is built to exploit those sloppy mistakes. If the Lions can't take care of the ball, the Golden Eagles will turn those errors into easy transition points and quick buckets.

The Golden Eagles are much more comfortable in Cookeville. Theyve won two straight at the Eblen Center and the home-court advantage in the OVC is a massive factor this late in the season.

Forward JaJuan Nichols is playing his best basketball of the year right now. He dropped 20 points in the win over SIUE and should have his way against a Lindenwood interior defense that gives up too many easy looks.

Lindenwood relies heavily on their fast break to generate offense. Techs ability to control the tempo and limit transition opportunities will force the Lions into a half-court game they do not want to play.

Getting plus money on a home team that is finally healthy and peaking is an overlay. The market is still looking at Tech's early-season struggles instead of their recent 5-2 surge.

Expect the Golden Eagles to control the pace from the tip and outwork the Lions on the glass to secure the win.

Bet Tennessee Tech ML (+123).

5* NO BRAINER on Southern Miss -165

Southern Miss is back at home where they play their best basketball. Reed Green Coliseum has become a house of horrors for Sun Belt visitors lately.

Old Dominion has struggled to find any rhythm on the offensive end this season. They rank near the bottom of the conference in effective field goal percentage.

The Monarchs are especially vulnerable when they have to travel long distances for conference play. They have failed to cover in six of their last eight road games.

Southern Miss relies on an aggressive defense that creates easy transition points. They are forcing nearly 15 turnovers per game when playing on their home floor.

Old Dominion does not have the backcourt depth to handle 40 minutes of constant pressure. They tend to cough up the ball in bunches once the game speeds up.

The Golden Eagles also have a massive edge on the glass in this matchup. They are limiting opponents to one shot and winning the second-chance point battle.

Southern Miss is 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games at home. They know how to close out tight games in the final four minutes of the second half.

Old Dominion played a physical game on Thursday night and now faces a tough turnaround. The fatigue will likely show in their shooting legs during the closing minutes.

Southern Miss is the more balanced team and features a much higher ceiling on the defensive end. They will not let this one slip away in front of a rowdy home crowd.

The price is short enough that we do not need to worry about the point spread. Take the better team to protect their home court and get the win.

Bet Southern Miss ML (-165).

5* NO BRAINER on Heat -8

Miami has a massive talent advantage in this spot that the line isn't fully reflecting. Both teams are playing their second game in as many nights, but the Heat are returning home while the Grizzlies have to travel.

The injury report for Memphis is a total disaster right now. They are missing Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Zach Edey, which strips away their scoring, rim protection, and size.

Memphis is also down to their third-string options in the backcourt with Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome sidelined. They are asking G-League level players to log heavy minutes against a veteran Miami rotation that just got healthier.

Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are back in the lineup for the Heat, giving them two high-level floor spacers that Memphis simply can't match. Miami's offense looks completely different with those weapons available to support Bam Adebayo.

Adebayo should have a field day in the paint against a depleted Grizzlies frontcourt. Without Jaren Jackson Jr. to contest shots or Edey to provide bulk, Memphis has no way to stop Bam from controlling the glass and scoring at will.

The Grizzlies have struggled mightily on the road this season with a 9-18 record and a bottom-tier offensive rating. Theyve lost four straight games coming into this weekend and are failing to cover numbers even as heavy underdogs.

Miami has already shown they can bury this team, having beat them by 32 points earlier in the season. With the Heat fighting for playoff positioning and Memphis looking toward the lottery, the motivation gap is wide.

Expect Miami to use their defensive pressure to force turnovers and turn this into a transition game early. This spread looks high, but the reality is that Memphis doesn't have enough NBA-caliber bodies to keep this competitive for four quarters.

Bet Heat -8.5 (-110).