Quick Navigation Links:
|
Jimmy Boyd |
|
|---|---|---|
| FREE PICKS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-B | Feb 18, 2026 Maryland vs. Northwestern |
Total 141½ -105 at BOVADA |
in 29m |
|
1* Free Pick on Maryland/Northwestern: under 141 Northwestern plays one of the slowest tempos in the country when they are at home. They currently rank near the bottom of the Big Ten in adjusted pace and love to bleed the shot clock on every possession. Maryland has struggled to find any offensive rhythm on the road this season. Their effective field goal percentage drops significantly when they travel, and they often struggle with long scoring droughts. The Terps rely on a high-pressure defense to stay competitive in the conference. They are elite at defending the three-point line and forcing teams into contested, late-clock jumpers. Northwestern is just as stingy in their own building. They prioritize transition defense and rarely allow easy baskets or run-out opportunities. Both coaching staffs prefer a half-court grind over a track meet. Expect both teams to use at least 20 seconds of the shot clock on nearly every trip down the floor. The officiating in the Big Ten usually gets more physical as the season reaches mid-February. This typically leads to fewer whistles and fewer points scored at the free-throw line. Maryland has stayed under the total in four of their last five games away from home. Northwestern has seen the under hit in six of their last eight matchups overall. The current line of 141.5 is way too high for two teams that rank in the top 50 nationally in defensive efficiency. This is a classic Big Ten rock fight where neither side is likely to crack the 70-point mark. The value is clearly on the under in a game where possessions will be limited. This matchup will be won in the trenches rather than on the fast break. I like the Under 141.5 (-105).
My full card for today features eight premium releases across college basketball and the PGA. These selections represent my strongest convictions for the current slate and are available now. You can view all of today's premium plays on my handicapper page.
|
||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Feb 17, 2026 Louisville vs SMU |
SMU +160 at Bovada |
Won $160 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
3* HEAVY HITTER on SMU +160 google:search{queries:[ The Cardinals are riding a five-game win streak and just knocked off Baylor on the road this past Saturday. That was a high-intensity battle in Fort Worth, and now they have to get back up for another tough road test just three days later. Louisville has stayed in the state of Texas, but this is still their second road environment in a very short window. The Mustangs have been nearly untouchable at Moody Coliseum this season with a dominant 13-2 record on their home floor. They are one of the most dangerous transition teams in the country, averaging a massive 1.227 points per possession when they get out and run. SMU is also shooting a blistering 41.5% from beyond the arc in conference play, which ranks second in the nation. That kind of perimeter efficiency is hard to maintain on the road, but it becomes a lethal weapon in front of a home crowd. Louisville handled the Mustangs back in late January, but the SMU guard trio of Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr. is playing at a much higher level now. The Cardinals rely heavily on their interior scoring, but their legs might not be there to finish at a 60% clip after their Saturday slugfest. SMUs defensive turnover percentage is elite, and they thrive on turning live-ball mistakes into quick buckets before the defense can set. If the Mustangs can force a high-tempo game, the fatigue of Louisvilles schedule will show up in the final ten minutes. The market is giving too much weight to Louisville's recent win streak and the previous head-to-head result. At +160, you are getting a high-powered offense with a significant home-court advantage in a prime letdown spot for the visitor. Bet SMU ML (+160). |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Feb 17, 2026 Michigan vs Purdue |
Michigan -2½ -110 at Buckeye |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
|
1* Free Pick on Michigan -2 Michigan is the side to be on in this Big Ten clash. The Wolverines are currently playing their most efficient basketball of the entire season. They arrive in West Lafayette having covered the spread in five of their last six contests. Michigans offense is simply too balanced for this version of the Purdue defense. The Wolverines rank in the top 15 nationally in effective field goal percentage. They are elite at finding the open man and hitting high-percentage shots. Purdue has struggled significantly to defend the three-point line lately. They have allowed opponents to shoot nearly 40% from deep over their last three games. Michigan has multiple shooters who can exploit that lack of perimeter pressure. The Wolverines also hold a major advantage when it comes to taking care of the ball. They rank near the top of the conference in turnover rate. Purdue does not force enough mistakes to get the easy transition buckets they need to flip a game. The rest situation also favors the visitors here. Michigan comes in with four full days of rest and preparation. Meanwhile, Purdue is playing its third game in seven days. They looked tired down the stretch in their last outing and the legs might not be there tonight. Michigan also brings a size advantage to the perimeter that will bother the Purdue guards. Their length makes it very difficult for teams to settle into a rhythm. The betting market is giving Purdue too much credit for their home court. Michigan is the better team and has the better match-up on the floor. I like the Michigan -2.5 (-110).
I am currently riding a six-game winning streak as my analysis continues to find high-probability opportunities in the current market. I have two premium NCAA-B selections posted for today's slate that meet my professional criteria. You can view my full card and long-term subscription options on my premium picks page.
|
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Feb 17, 2026 SE Missouri State vs Tenn-Martin |
Tenn-Martin -150 at Bovada |
Lost $150.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
5* NO BRAINER on Tenn-Martin -150 UT Martin is in a prime revenge spot tonight. They got embarrassed by 16 points in the first meeting back in January. The Skyhawks have been waiting for this rematch. They now get the Redhawks on their own court at the Elam Center. SE Missouri State is coming off a win this past Saturday. That was a physical battle and theyve had a quick turnaround to get back on the road. UT Martin has the clear rest advantage here. They haven't played since Thursday and have had five full days to prep for this OVC clash. The battle on the glass is where this game will be won. The Skyhawks are averaging six more rebounds per game than the Redhawks. Andrija Bukumirovic is a massive mismatch in the paint for SEMO. He leads UT Martin in scoring and rebounding and should control the interior. UT Martins defense is one of the stingiest in the conference. They allow just 63 points per game and do a great job of forcing difficult shots. The Redhawks defense is much more vulnerable. They give up over 71 points per contest and struggle to stop high-efficiency offenses on the road. SEMO also tends to struggle when they can't get out in transition. UT Martin is excellent at slowing the pace and making teams play a half-court game. The Skyhawks are the more rested and motivated team tonight. Expect them to settle the score from that January blowout. I like the Tenn-Martin ML (-150). |
||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Feb 18, 2026 Ole Miss vs Texas A&M |
Ole Miss +9½ -105 at Bovada |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Ole Miss +9 Texas A&M is being asked to cover nearly double digits while they are in the middle of a four-game losing streak. One of these teams has to win tonight, but there is no reason to believe the Aggies have the offensive efficiency right now to pull away from a conference rival. The Rebels have lost seven straight games themselves, which has inflated this line well past where it should be for an SEC matchup. Chris Beard is a high-level tactical coach whose teams typically stay competitive even when the results aren't going their way. Texas A&Ms style under Bucky McMillan relies on extreme pressure and forcing turnovers to generate easy points. Ole Miss has the veteran backcourt depth to handle that heat and keep their turnover rate under control for 40 minutes. The Rebels feature elite individual scorers like AJ Storr and Malik Dia who can create their own shots when the offense breaks down late in the shot clock. When the pace speeds up in a "Bucky Ball" game, the variance increases, and that almost always favors the team getting 9.5 points. The Aggies have been a poor investment for bettors lately, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have struggled to put teams away because of inconsistent perimeter shooting and a defensive rating that has cratered during this skid. Ole Miss has shown they can grit out tough road environments, including several close losses to top-tier SEC competition earlier this February. Expect a scrappy, high-possession game where the Rebels do enough at the free-throw line to keep this within a few buckets. I like the Ole Miss +9.5. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Feb 18, 2026 Arkansas vs Alabama |
Alabama -170 at Bovada |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
3* HEAVY HITTER on Alabama -170 Alabama is a different beast when they play at Coleman Coliseum. The Crimson Tide currently rank in the top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage at home. Arkansas has struggled to close out on shooters during road games all season long. Alabamas pace is going to wear down the Arkansas transition defense by the second half. Arkansas is coming off a grueling physical battle from last Saturday. Alabama has won and covered in five of their last six home games against SEC rivals. The Razorbacks lack the defensive discipline to chase shooters through screens for a full game. The crowd will be loud and the Tide usually jump out to an early double-digit lead at home. The moneyline price is fair for a team that is nearly unbeatable on their own floor in February. I like the Alabama ML (-170). |
||
|
PREMIUM PICK STREAKS |
|---|
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. No Brainer: This is one of Jimmys highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this plays title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays. Heavy Hitter: Jimmys Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmys top plays, and it covers games from every angle. Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board. Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmys Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner. All of Jimmys picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. |
