3* HEAVY HITTER on Liberty/Delaware: under 133

Liberty brings the slowest pace in the conference to Delaware tonight. Ritchie McKays Flames rank 337th in the country in field goal attempts because they refuse to rush a single possession.

The Flames milk the shot clock and force every opponent into a physical, half-court grind. They rank near the top of the nation in defensive efficiency and prioritize stopping transition buckets at all costs.

Delawares offense has been an absolute mess lately and they are averaging just 65 points per game. The Blue Hens have no answer for the "Pack Line" defense that Liberty uses to wall off the paint and force tough jumpers.

These two teams met less than two weeks ago and the final score was a miserable 67-51. That game stayed way under the total and I expect a repeat performance in this rematch.

Libertys defense is allowing just 67 points per game this season and they don't give up cheap looks. Delaware lacks the elite perimeter snipers needed to punish the Flames from the outside for forty minutes.

The Blue Hens have struggled with efficiency and have stayed under the total in four of their last six games. Both coaching staffs prioritize taking care of the basketball and limiting possessions to maximize their defensive setups.

The market is still giving too much credit to the Blue Hens' offense in this spot. We are going to see a lot of 25-second possessions that end in contested shots at the rim.

This is a classic "first team to 60 wins" type of game. The volume of shots simply won't be high enough to push this total past the number.

I like the Under 133 (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on St. Joe's +2

St. Joseph's is the wrong underdog tonight at Hagan Arena.
The Hawks are a dominant 10-2 at home this season and getting points in their own gym is a massive value spot.

George Washington comes into Philadelphia on a downward slide after a 14-point home loss to Fordham on Saturday.
The Revolutionaries have lost two straight and have struggled to find consistency away from home with a 3-5 road record.

St. Joe's is heading in the opposite direction with three consecutive wins under their belt.
They have also dominated this specific matchup lately, winning four straight games against George Washington.

Injuries are a major factor here as GW is dealing with a very thin rotation.
Key contributors Trey Moss and Ty Bevins are both ruled out, which leaves the Revolutionaries without much scoring punch off the bench.

This depth problem will be exposed by a St. Joe's defense that features the A-10's premier shot-blocker in Justice Ajogbor.
Ajogbor anchors the paint and forces teams to beat the Hawks from the outside, where GW has been highly inconsistent.

On the other end of the floor, the Hawks are shooting the ball with high efficiency at home.
Dasear Haskins has been a flamethrower from deep lately, hitting 46 percent of his threes since the start of conference play.

St. Joe's matches up perfectly with GW's high-tempo style because they do not turn the ball over.
The Hawks rank near the top of the conference in taking care of the rock and will limit GW's transition opportunities.

The crowd at Hagan Arena is one of the toughest in the A-10 for opposing teams to navigate.
Expect the Hawks to feed off that energy and win this game comfortably on the scoreboard.

I like the St. Joe's +2.5 (-115).

3* HEAVY HITTER on New Mexico State +1

New Mexico State is being undervalued in this road spot against a Louisiana Tech team that is struggling to find consistent scoring.

The Aggies have turned into one of the best defensive units in Conference USA this season.

They prioritize the glass and limit second-chance points, which is the exact recipe to frustrate the Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech relies heavily on their perimeter shooting to win games at home.

However, the Bulldogs are shooting just 31% from deep over their last three contests.

New Mexico State ranks in the top 50 nationally in three-point defense.

They run shooters off the line and force opponents into tough, contested mid-range jumpers.

The Aggies also have a significant edge at the free-throw line.

They get to the stripe nearly 22 times per game, while Louisiana Tech struggles with foul discipline in the paint.

Expect New Mexico State to control the tempo and keep this a low-possession game.

Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as a home favorite.

The Bulldogs have a thin bench and fatigue started to show in the second half of their game this past Saturday.

New Mexico State has the depth to keep fresh bodies on the floor and win the battle in the final five minutes.

This line is essentially a pick'em, but the Aggies are the more disciplined team on both ends of the floor right now.

They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and have the interior size to dominate the paint tonight.

I like the New Mexico State +1.5 (-105).

3* HEAVY HITTER on San Francisco -7

San Francisco has been waiting for this rematch since a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to the Lions in early January.
That defeat is the main reason the Dons aren't sitting higher in the WCC standings, and they have a massive revenge edge tonight.

Loyola Marymount is currently in a total tailspin, riding a six-game losing streak with no end in sight.
They were completely embarrassed in their last game, losing by 31 points to Santa Clara while turning the ball over 22 times.

The Lions simply cannot protect the rock right now, and that is a disaster against a San Francisco defense that thrives on pressure.
The Dons rank among the conference leaders in defensive efficiency and will feast on those transition opportunities.

San Francisco forward David Fuchs is playing some of his best basketball, coming off a dominant 30-point, 9-rebound performance.
He should dominate the paint against an LMU frontcourt that just got out-rebounded by double digits in their last outing.

Even if forward Ndewedo Newbury is limited or out with his leg injury, the Dons have the depth to cover this number at home.
The Lions have seen their shooting percentages crater on the road, and War Memorial Gym is one of the toughest places to play in the West.

San Francisco has had three full days of rest and preparation, while LMU looks like a team that has completely checked out.
The Dons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, and they won't let off the gas in a major bounce-back spot.

Expect the Dons to control the tempo from the tip and turn this into a double-digit blowout by the mid-second half.
The Lions are reeling, and this is the worst possible matchup for a team struggling with confidence and ball security.

I like the San Francisco -7.5 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Clemson -160

Clemson is the class of this matchup and should not be priced this low against a struggling opponent. The Tigers enter this contest with a dominant 18-4 record and have established themselves as one of the most reliable teams in the conference.

Stanford is currently in a massive tailspin. They have lost four straight games and their defense has completely checked out during this stretch.

The Cardinal just allowed 88 points to Florida State and 79 to Miami. They simply do not have the defensive discipline required to slow down an efficient Clemson offense.

The Tigers rank in the top 50 nationally in effective field goal percentage. They prioritize high-quality looks and possess a veteran backcourt that rarely makes mistakes.

Clemson has had three full days of rest to prepare for this cross-country trip. This extended break allows them to handle the travel and maintain their physical defensive identity.

Stanford is significantly shorthanded in the frontcourt with Chisom Okpara out for the season. This lack of depth will be a glaring issue against Clemsons physical interior scorers.

The Cardinal are also struggling mightily with ball security. They rank near the bottom of the ACC in turnover rate over the last two weeks.

Clemson will exploit those errors and turn them into easy transition points. The Tigers are also far more reliable at the free-throw line, shooting over 75% as a team.

Expect the Tigers to control the tempo and pull away in the second half. Stanford cannot keep pace with the elite teams in this league for a full 40 minutes.

Bet Clemson ML.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Grizzlies +114

The value here is entirely on the Grizzlies catching plus money against a Sacramento team that is currently a shell of itself. Most bettors are still looking at the Kings as the team from two years ago, but this roster looks a lot different now that DeAaron Fox is in San Antonio.

Sacramento is also dealing with a massive injury void tonight with Keegan Murray already ruled out due to a left ankle sprain. To make matters worse, Domantas Sabonis is a true game-time decision with lower back soreness that could severely limit his mobility or keep him out entirely.

If Sabonis sits or plays limited minutes, the Kings lose their only remaining elite offensive engine and their primary rebounder. Memphis has been playing without Ja Morant for weeks, so they have already adjusted their schemes and rotation to survive without their superstar.

Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been carrying the load and provide a scoring punch that the current Kings rotation simply cannot match. The Grizzlies still rank in the top half of the league in defensive rating because of Jacksons presence in the paint, which is a nightmare for a Kings team missing its best spacers.

Sacramento has struggled to find a consistent identity since the Fox trade, and their depth is being tested to the breaking point with the recent rash of injuries. Memphis is the hungrier team and has the defensive teeth to frustrate a shorthanded Kings backcourt that lacks a primary creator.

Getting the Grizzlies at +114 is a steal when you consider they have the two best players on the floor tonight. Expect Memphis to control the tempo and win this battle in the trenches.

I like the Grizzlies ML (+114).

5* NO BRAINER on Wolves -105

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a prime spot to bounce back after a tough loss in Memphis on Monday night.
They face a Toronto Raptors team that is still missing its anchor in the middle with Jakob Poeltl sidelined by a back injury.

Without Poeltl, the Raptors have no real answer for Rudy Gobert on the glass or as a rim protector.
Minnesota currently ranks near the top of the league in rebounding with Gobert hauling down over 11 boards per contest.

The Wolves also boast a massive shooting advantage, ranking fourth in the NBA in three-point percentage at 37.6 percent.
Even with stars Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle listed as questionable, the depth of this Minnesota roster has been a major strength all year.

Bench threats like Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo have consistently stepped up to keep the offense moving when the starters are banged up.
Toronto has played well lately, but they still struggle to stop elite size and efficient perimeter shooting.

Minnesota outscores opponents by nearly five points per game this season.
That scoring differential is far superior to Torontos thin 1.4 mark.

The Wolves have been a reliable road team this season, posting a 15-11 record away from home while grinding through a tough schedule.
Expect Minnesota to control the paint and use their superior shooting efficiency to pull away in the second half.

The current price is essentially a pick'em, which undervalues a Minnesota team that matches up perfectly against Torontos current roster holes.
The Raptors lack the interior depth to keep the Wolves off the offensive glass for four quarters.

Bet Wolves ML (-105).