*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play on UL Monroe* The UL Monroe Warhawks are extremely well coached by Vincent. I love the job he's done turning around a program that was bottom of the barrel in the Sun Belt when he arrived.

UL Monroe has been able to create an identity of a team that can play with physicality and run the football. ULM is 27th in YPC nationally, and they are 17th in rush rate so they are running consistently. They are 2nd in the nation in rushing play explosiveness.

Coastal Carolina is a mess right now. The Chanticleers offense is 135th in QBR and 135th in the country in yards per attempt at a measly 4.40 yards per attempt. They will have to try to run it here, but ULM is 50th in rushing success rate allowed.

The weather here calls for steady rain and a little bit of wind too. That plays into the hands of the better running team and the better team at stopping the run and that is ULM. Coastal Carolina has also fumbled the ball 11 times already this year.

I like ULM to take care of business here.

Take UL Monroe.

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points.

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season.

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air.

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Temple* The Navy Midshipmen have played the 219th strength of schedule according to Sagarin. There are only 136 FBS teams, so Navy has played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far.

Navy is coming off a hard fought emotional win over Air Force, and they have played two triple option teams in a row. This can be a tough spot for them situationally. They now go play a normal offense and Navy is in a bit of a letdown spot after the service academy vs. service academy rivalry game.

Temple is very well coached by Keeler. His defensive coordinator is Brian Smith, who did a great job stopping Navy's offense and pulling the upset with the Rice Owls against Navy last year.

While Temple hasn't played a really tough schedule, it has been the 94th toughest in the country which is far tougher than the Navy schedule.

There is a chance of showers which can be tricky for option teams like Navy. Temple is 43rd in PPA/pass and the Navy pass defense is just 98th in PPA/pass allowed.

Take Temple.

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate.

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here.

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play.

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a hard fought loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs last weekend. Seattle actually had 8.6 yards per play to 7.3 yards per play for Tampa Bay, but they were -2 in TO margin and that was just enough for the Bucs to edge them out.

Jacksonville is coming off a massive Monday night win over the Kansas City Chiefs. They couldn't be feeling better about themselves coming into this game. The Jaguars have lost the yards per play statistic in their last three games (all wins), and I believe they are a little overvalued in the market in general. With a short week to prepare and a tough opponent coming off a loss, I think this is a difficult situational spot for the Jaguars.

Seattle has two very good RB's and Jacksonville is 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, and I like the Seahawks defense to bounce back in this game.

Take Seattle.

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here.