*3 Star Free Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have played four games this year. The combined points scored in those four games: 55, 77, 82, and 83. They gave up 40 points to Fordham. They gave up 55 points against Liberty. This Buffalo defense is giving up 7.27 yards per play on the season thus far. They have given up an astounding 30 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Bulls defense is terrible.

Akron's offense should improve a lot playing against MAC defenses, especially one like Buffalo. DJ Irons is back in form now, and Irons is capable of breaking a big one at any point. He should be able to make things happen against this Buffalo defense.

I think Cole Snyder is one of the better quarterbacks in the MAC too. Buffalo is an underdog here and if they are playing from behind like I expect, I think Buffalo has a good shot to move the ball through the air against a susceptible Akron secondary.

Take the over.

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*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country.

The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here.

The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been.

This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years.

Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion.

I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season.

Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive.

Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile.

Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet.

Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense.

A hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game.

Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough.

Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville).

The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad.

Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible.

The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense.

Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Syracuse* The Clemson Tigers are in a tough spot here. They were beaten in overtime by Florida State a week ago. Clemson has struggled to create explosive plays on offense. They are just 124th in explosiveness on offense.

Syracuse has been very good this year. Garrett Shrader has improved every year for the Orange. Shrader is a good dual threat quarterback. Syracuse is averaging a little over 5 yards per carry on the season. Syracuse is 9th in the country in tempo, and that high tempo offense is much improved from a year ago.

I like the Syracuse defense being coached by defensive wizard Rocky Long. Long is a master and he should have a good game plan ready for Clemson.

Syracuse has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Clemson. They have pulled outright upsets as a large dog once and three others were one score losses as a big dog. They led for much of the game last year against Clemson.

I'll take the home dog.

Take Syracuse.

*3 Star Play Under* The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason.

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state.

Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here.

The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here.

Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is a really underrated unit right now. Chris Jones makes a huge difference back in the fold. He was able to sit a lot of last week's game because the score got out of control right away against the Bears. He was limited in practice this week, but is expected to be ready to go here. Kansas City has an above average pass rush, and the Jets pass blocking is very weak.

Zach Wilson is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL (maybe the worst). He is playing behind a bad offensive line, and he's going to have a lot of pressure in this one.

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company ready to go against a solid Jets defense. Andy Reid has lots of great offensive weapons at his disposal, and I don't think the Jets have an answer for stopping Kelce in the middle of the field.

Wilson is 10-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL, and he has failed to cover in five straight games. The Chiefs are really tough to shut down. How many can we expect the Jets to score here? Not very many in my opinion.

Take Kansas City.

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Miami Dolphins put up 70 points last week, and the Miami offense is tremendous. I think this is a good spot to go against them though.

Miami's defense is still the weakest unit in this game. The Dolphins gave up 34 points in the only game they played a good offense so far this year. Buffalo's offense will test them in a big way.

Buffalo played a poor first game, but they have bounced back very nicely since. Buffalo is still one of the teams in the NFL that has the highest upside. The Bills know they need this game with their strong home field advantage.

The Dolphins are a good team, but I'm selling high on them in this spot.

It sounds like Damar Hamlin might take the field in this one, and that is a big emotional boost for the home team.

Take Buffalo.