Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Detroit Lions -4

The Detroit Lions blew a 24-7 halftime lead to the San Francisco 49ers with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line last season. They showed they could play with the elite, also upsetting the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the opener last season. They are even going to be even better in 2024.

The Lions already have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are loaded at RB, WR and have one of the top offensive lines in the game. Jared Goff is good enough to get it done. And now they should get a full season of Jameson Williams at receiver after he was suspended early last season. Williams had two touchdowns against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

All the Lions were missing was a reliable defense. They had a dominant front seven last year, but they were weak in the secondary. The looked to shore that up by adding two rookie CB's in Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw with their first two picks. They also added two veteran CB's in Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson. They simply have no weaknesses now and are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl for good reason.

The Los Angeles Rams got a healthy season from Matthew Stafford last year and made it to the playoffs as a wild card. They came up just short in a 24-23 loss to the Lions, and there's no question they are going to want revenge. I just don't think they have the goods to hang with the Lions this time around.

Their most important defensive player in Aaron Donald retired. They are depleted at cornerback with rookies Josh Wallace and Charles Woods expected to see significant action along with Tre'Davious White, who is coming off a season-ending injury with the Bills last year. Cobie Durant is battling a hamstring injury, and their best CB in Darious Williams was just placed on injured reserve. They were already going to struggle without Donald defensively, but they have almost no shot of stopping the Lions with the current state of their secondary.

The Rams also have problems along the offensive line. Starting LT Alaric Jackson has been suspended, and starting RT Rob Havenstein is questionable with an ankle injury. WR Puka Nacua is banged up with a knee injury but expected to play. Matthew Stafford will be under duress for four quarters.

Jared Goff is a perfect 7-0 ATS in his last seven Week 1 games so he knows how to come out of the gates firing on all cylinders. I think that will be the case for Goff and the Lions at home against the short-handed Rams in Week 1. Bet the Lions Sunday.

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This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Sunday Free Play. The public really loves the Bears which has forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of their odds as numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up as they are hit with their fourth highest win total over the last 11 years. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well so this is a team on the rise but we are not laying over a field goal in the season opener with a rookie quarterback no matter how good he is supposed to be, supposed to being the key word. Williams does come into a unique situation as while he is the No. 1 overall draft pick, the team around him is not a last place talent but we still cannot ignore the fact that starting quarterbacks in Week One that were the No. 1 overall draft pick are just 2-21. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg but they actually face a revamped offense that could cause problems. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan as its new head coach who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line which was in dire need of help. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The Titans shored up the defense as well as the secondary is stronger with the signing of cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. We love dogs early on and in this case, Week One and Two underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016. Play (465) Tennessee Titans

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The time is ripe for Arizona to play the Bills in Buffalo and not just because the temperature is going to be in the low 60's instead of freezing cold and snow.

The Cardinals have improved themselves on both sides of the ball. Their offense is dangerous with Kyle Murray now 100 percent from a torn ACL that caused him to miss nine games last season. Arizona's offensive line has been upgraded, James Connor is underrated when healthy - which he is now - and Marvin Harrison Jr. gives Murray an above average receiving group when you factor in Trey McBride's emergence as a top-five tight end last season.

I don't think the Cardinals are as bad on defense as perceived. Jonathan Gannon is a defensive guru and the Cardinals are respectable in the secondary especially at safety.

I expect the Bills to start slow and be less explosive. Josh Allen has to break in new wide receivers following the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Allen committed 23 turnovers last season, including 18 interceptions. That was the second-most in the NFL behind only Sam Howell.

Because of Allen's huge salary, the Bills' talent level and depth are down. This is really reflected on defense where cornerback Tre'Davious White,safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer along with team sack leader Leonard Floyd all left.

Making it even harder on the Bills was they were hit hard by injuries, already losing Matt Milano for the season. He was their best all-around linebacker. The injury situation was so dire for Buffalo that Sean McDermott couldn't get his starters any work during preseason. No surprise the Bills were outscored, 67-41, in preseason.