5-Dime POD + POW (23-5 L28 + 101-45 This Year!)

[Pick Bot]

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Take Twins -1.5 @ +103 5-Dime POD + POW
If I believed in anything more than a play of the week this would be it. I don't believe in garbage play of the months and play of the years. You can't possibly tell me as a handicapper you can tell the future or know that a current play is better than a play from the past or the future. There have been plays I have absolutely loved but only put my 4-dime mark on it. Tonight is a rare 5-Dime mark where I have dominated just as much as my 4-Dimers!

We get a pitching mis-match of Carmona vs. Baker. This does not translate well for Carmona and the Indians. Carmona and pitching on the turf is not good because he does not strike guys out. In fact on the road he has just 47 IP and has allowed 54 hits and 29 BB's for a 1.77 WHIP. That will not fly on the carpet here tonight and it has not gone well for Carmona in 3 GS on carpet this year where he posts a 9.64 ERA in 14IP he gave up 17 H 7 BB and 15 ER. The Twins have success with a .299 average including forcing him out of the game in 2 innings on 5 H 3 BB and 7 ER in his last visit here. I expect much of the same and when he leaves the game nothing good will be behind him. The Indians are ranked #27 in the league in bullpen ERA and they're even worse on the road this season with a 5.78 ERA. You look at what they have done as of late and their bullpen has an ERA of 5.91 last 5! Carmona will face a Twins team that loves to hit at home and over last 5 are scoring some runs too with a .302 average vs. RHP and 6.39 runs per 9 innings. Twins bullpen is on the opposite side of the spectrum here with a 2.57 L3, 3.12 L5, and 2.61 Last 10 games, but if history is any indication on how tonight goes they won't need much from their bullpen with Scott Baker on the mound.

Baker has dominated the Indians. In all 4 starts the Twins have won by at least 3 runs and are winning these games by an average of 7.75. In his 2 home starts vs. the Indians he has 16 IP 2 ER on 8H 15K's and only 1BB. That is what impresses me most about Baker is he's got good K:BB numbers. He has pitched 89 innings at home and he has only 12 BB! His WHIP is 1.01 at home and it's a clear advantage over Carmona who will allow runners on the bases all night long. Baker can also feel a bit better when he does not face Sizemore who has a .324 average against him. Sizemore is out indefinately. Indians have struggled to hit the ball overall not just against Baker as they have a .208 average vs. RHP in their last 5 for 2.11 runs per 9 average. Over last 10 it's .222 for 3.38 runs/9 and they also score .47 runs per 9 innings on the road vs. RHP than LHP. Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 road vs. RH starter and 1-6 overall. Twins are 5-1 last 6 vs. RH starter and 5-0 with Baker on the mound in his last 5 on turf, 7-1 last 8 vs. AL Central and 16-5 in his last 21 as a favorite. Carmona will be on 5 days rest but it has not translated in his performance as the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 on 5 days rest.

Game 2 of a series normally this does not have a big impact, but in my opinion it does. Especially for a traveling team although Cleveland does not have to go very far for this one what is interesting is their record when they do. They are 3-21 in Game 2's on the road this year and 12-34 in game 2's overall! Twins have won 41 home games and 73% of those games have come by more than 1 run. While the Indians have lost 41 games where 75.6% of those games have been lost by 1+ run!