**1.5 Dime Early Bird Special Play **69% Career on EBS plays

[Pick Bot]

Take Reds -124 (1.5 Dime Free Play)(1-5 scale)
I like the Reds again today they have scored 32 runs in their last 3 games and we are seeing the team they though they'd have on the field all year healthy. The Pirates are probably the worst day team it's hard to actually dig up their records, but I was able to dig this up. During day play the Pirates average just .236 (.260 @ night) and create just 3.54 runs per 27 outs (4.50 @ night). Reds are pretty much the same at day or night.

It will be a pitching match up of Morton vs. Arroyo and I'm going with the veteran, better hitting, and better bullpen team again here. Before I get into why I'd like to say Morton has impressed me at home and on the road he has been awful. Actually in Pitt he has a 2.76 ERA in 7 game starts. However, he's a young pitcher and during his 3 day starts he has a 16.20 ERA so I'll be playing that angle here today. I actually faced Morton back in high school and it seems as though his control is still not there as he had 4 walks against the Reds the last time these two faced giving up 6 ER on 9/1. As I also mentioned the Reds are hot scoring 32 runs in their last 3 games and I think it continues this afternoon.

Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and although he too does not pitch necessarily well during day start I don't think he will have to. Plus I don't see the Pirates scoring runs here or anything as they are scoring just 2.52 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 vs. RHP. They are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. RH starter and the Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 match ups. Arroyo is on fire right now and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. He had a start against the Reds early in the year when he went 8 strong innings giving up 0 ER on 4 hits. Reds are 11-1 in their last 12 when an opponent scores 2 runs or less in previous game. Look for Arroyo to take advantage of this trend and the weak offensively challenged Pirates this afternoon.