**3-Dime Early Bird Special MLB Play (63.6% MLB EBS winners

[Pick Bot]

Take Phillies -130 (3-Dime Early Bird Special)(1-5 scale)
I have won 63.6% of my Early Bird Special plays. Tomorrow we'll have a 3-Dime play on the Phillies to win game 1 of this series and it's based on the edge the Phillies have against Ubaldo Jimenez and the advantage Cliff Lee will have against this Rockies offense.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been lights out this year and is only 25 years old making his MLB playoff debut. As we saw yesterday from Rick Porcello that does not really matter as he turned in an ace like performance. Here Jimenez has several things going against him like a bad memory of his last start vs. the Phillies in Philly when he gave up 7 ER in just 4 innings on 10 hits in his last start in 2008 when he visited Philly. I think he will struggle again as he has not been the same pitcher against LH hitters. Lefties are hitting .244 (.212 righties) with a .791 OPS (.652 OPS righties). Those are huge differences and the Phillies match up extremely well as they have the most potent bats from LH hitters in Utley, Howard, and Ibanez. Along with those are Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Paul Bako making it 6 of the 8 hitters left handed. Another disadvantage for Jimenez as he just does not match up well here. His control is still in an issue as he's given up 10 BB's in his last 3 starts. Phillies are hitting .271 vs. RHP at home with a 5.32 runs per 9 better than what they do against LHP. Overall the bullpen has been a problem for the Rockies or at least the Phillies have the advantage except for the 9th inning where the Rockies have Huston Street as the better starter as this is the Phillies biggest weakness. Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 as a favorite and an incredible 40-14 when opponents allowed 5+ runs in previous game. Along with the advantages that I have explained the Phillies have also played significantly better during the day creating +.56 runs per 27 outs, and have an OBP of +0.21. Oh by the way they have to face 2008 Cy Young Cliff Lee.

Cliff Lee has never pitched in the post season in his career, but still holds the advantage over the younger Jimenez. Why does he hold the advantage? The Rockies have struggled on the road particularly against LHP where they are hitting just .210 and scoring just 3.07 runs per 9 innings on the road. Rockies have just 39 career AB vs. Lee and 10 of them have come from Giambi and his time in the AL. His 1 start with the Phillies against the Rockies was a good one where he went 7 innings gave up 6 hits struck out 9 and gave up 1 ER in a 3-1 win. Since joining the Phillies Lee has a 3-1 record during day starts with a 1.71 ERA and overall has a 2.52 ERA with the Phillies. He struggled a bit down the stretch, but with the rest and the adrenaline he will have going at home with the Phillies crowd behind him he is going to be ready for this start. The Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 road starts vs. LH starters.

Rockies are 7-18 in their last 25 as a road under dog, and the Rockies are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. the Phillies including 1-5 in their last 6 in Philly. Point of the matter is I loved the Rockies this post season, but I feel they caught a raw deal with Jorge De La Rosa being out for the NLDS with a groin injury he was their only LH starter. Rockies who don't hit LHP as well will have to face Hamels, and possibly J.A. Happ two other lefties after they face Cliff Lee. You can find the Phillies at -155 for series prices.