*Rare - 4.5-Dime NBA POD - 7:35 PM Start - **3-1 ATS on 4.5

[Pick Bot]

I have not been giving the BIG PLAY away this NBA season. In fact I have had just four 4.5 Dime plays all season long in which our only loss came with the lowly New Jersey Nets in December. I vowed it'd be the last time I wasted my time with the Nets and to this date it has been. Tonight I love this match up and you will to when you go to cash your ticket at the window! It's guaranteed or 1 Day NBA FREE!

Heat -7.5 (4.5 Dime NBA POD)
This is just my 5th 4.5 dime NBA play this season with the other 4 coming in the month of December. Tonight however I feel confident in the Heat getting it done over the lowly Timber Wolves despite the Heat being without Duane Wade.

The line has moved pretty heavily in our favor and you will see it in many places at -8. I am confident the way the Heat have been playing defense at home this season and even on the road in their past 5 games where they were holding opponents to 38.8% from the field and just 84.4 points per game that's less than 19 points of than what the Wolves are allowing in their last 5 games. If you look at the stats on the road for the Wolves it gets worse as they give up more than 111 ppg and are 29th in the league overall in scoring defense. Scoring without Duane Wade won't be a problem tonight for the Heat.

What will be a problem is the Twolves 21st scoring offense. They are going to struggle defensively on the road in this situation as the Heat come in with fresh legs on 2 days rest. The Heat play their best defense in this situation giving up just 87ppg. Miami has gotten into this situation before where they are coming off a long road trip. Looking at their recent home games after a road trip of 2 or more games the results you will find staggering. Pacers W by 30, Kings W by 31, Bucks L by 4, Houston W by 33, Charlotte L by 10. The two losses came to playoff teams and the big wins were against teams that are in the same place that the Twolves are in.

Twolves have struggled on the road and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8. Their last three road games @ Wizards, Pistons, and 76ers have been losses by 9, 23, and 22 points. Miami has been getting it done against the bad teams for a wile now going 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. teams with a win % below .400. Look for them to get it done tonight as they are in 7th place in the playoff race and can ill afford a loss like this.