2.2* FREE PLAY - Pac-12 18-10 L28 Free Picks

[Pick Bot]

UCLA +5 (2.2* FREE PLAY)
Wow how could I be on UCLA especially after we backed Arizona in a but kicking of the Bruins a little over a week ago. The line opened at +6 and with just 29% of the public on UCLA the line has moved to +4.5 and +5 in most places. Ironic, especially with all the injuries and suspensions, but there are a couple of things that won't change in this match up that to me will be the difference.

The first thing that won't change is California's poor road performance. This team is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and they are 3-13 ATs in their last 16 as a road favorite. The other thing is UCLA plays much better at home and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home vs. a team with a winning record and I actually think they'll play better with the suspensions. We also get a look at Jerry Rice Jr. making his debut because of all those injuries.

The second thing that won't change is UCLA's ability to run the ball. They will run a lot that should shorten the game quite a bit especially if they are able to run it like I think they can with Johnathan Franklin to have a big game. The offensive line is under rated they've allowed just 6 sacks on the year and they average 4.7 yards per carry and 5.25 at home. Cal's defense is ranked 4th defending the run, but a closer look sees them allowing 4.63 yards per carry on the road. On the other side do not expect Cal to be able to run the ball they are very small up front averaging just 289 lbs on the offensive line and UCLA will have an advantage on the defensive line. Meaning the game will turn to Zach Maynard and I'm just not sold on the lefty yet.