4** NFL Late Night Fix - Broncos vs. Patriots - 8pm ET

[Pick Bot]

Tebow vs. Brady. It's mania and this game is likely to get huge ratings and it also should be an interesting game and tell us a lot about the Broncos moving forward. Don't miss out on my in depth analysis and guaranteed pick which is guaranteed or one day is FREE!

Broncos +14 -115 (4* play); Broncos +575 1* play
These two met in Denver and it was a close game in the first half, but turnovers, and penalties were the difference. The Broncos are a better team now in my opinion and their pass rush has to show up on the road today. The Patriots are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games and the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in New England. Patriots are also 3-14 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite 10.5+.

The one thing you can take away from this is the Patriots simply can't play well enough on defense to cover these type of spreads unless they get turnovers which is what they got in the first match up as the Broncos lost 3 fumbles. However, that was just kind of out of the ordinary and I think the Broncos come back and play possession football keeping Brady off the field and they clearly can do it despite having just 27 minutes on offense in the last match up they'll have to do a better job and in their last 3 games they have held a 61% advantage in time of possession. Here is how that's happening they are passing more on first down. They are #1 in rushes on first down, but in their last game vs. Pitt they passed 67% of the time on 1st down. This avoided the 2nd and longs and they were not as predictable. Finally they let Tebow go a little. Now they won't have 9 in the box today they'll have corners in bump and run and safety help over the top when they play the Patriots. Expect this to go back to more running afterall they ran for 252 yards vs. the Patriots on 31 carries.

Patriots do not have the ability to get to QB's especially since losing Andre Carter. That should be huge especially if Tebow gets the time against this secondary. The biggest key is putting the ball in the end zone. If they can be effective in the red zone and not turn the ball over they not only easily cover this spread they win the game. There is just something special about this Broncos team and I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots went out in their first game yet again because the Broncos have all the ingredients for an upset and I think they like playing the under dog role.