4.4** NCAAF pod guaranteed or one day free

[Pick Bot]

San Diego St +3.5 4.4* pOD
San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That’s a huge advantage going up against a BYU team that could easily have 10 wins with 3 of their losses coming by a combined 10 points. However 2 of those losses, Boise and San Jose were teams San Diego State played. Sand Diego State won at Boise, and they lost by just 4 to San Jose so it’s clear they are going to match up well with BYU.

If you look at the numbers San Diego State is 11th in rushing play % and they lean on Adam Muema who had 1,355 yards this year 16 TD and 6.42 ypc. He even ran for 127 on 25 carries at Boise State who was 19th in ypc run defense. Facing BYU will be a new task as they are 2nd in the nation allowing just 2.7 ypc and 3.0 on the road, but ironically BYU has struggled vs. teams that like to control the time of possession with the running game. They have faced mostly pass oriented teams and have only faced 4 teams in the top 53 in rushing play % and in those games they went 1-3. They also faced 7 teams as well as an FCS school that were ranked 98th or worst in ypc offense. In the 4 vs. top 38 rushing ypc offenses they went 2-2 and one of those wins was by just 3 points. This thought that San Diego State does not match up will is a little bit misleading given the fact that there is evidence that BYU has had a hard time dominating against opponents that lean on the run first despite being very good at stopping it.

San Diego State’s passing offense should create just enough balance with Adam Dingwell. He’s been excellent in replace of Ryan Katz and won’t have to do much to win this game as long as San Diego State’s defense continues to play well.

BYU’s offense could have some major issues against San Diego State who had 30 sacks and 84 TFL. They are iffy at QB and will likely play two guys behind a leaky offensive line that was 71st in protecting their QB’s this season. San Diego State has been great against the pass and defense. They match up well with Leon McFadden at CB who will be in the NFL next year taking on Cody Hoffman. If the Aztecs can shut down Hoffman their run defense should take care of the rest. BYU’s offense is nothing special and San Diego State held 4 formidable rushing offenses on the road – Wash, Fresno, Nevada, and Boise all under 4 yards per carry. They have been excellent down the stretch holding opponents to 31% conversions on third downs and 34% on the year at home.

BYU on the other hand is #1 in the nation in third down defense, but again they’ll be going up against an offense that is ranked 10th and converts 53.8% at Qualcom stadium this year where they went 3-1. BYU’s defense has only faced 4 top 34 3rd down offenses and went 1-3 agaisnt them. The others were ranked 118, 117, 101, 109, 121, and 114.