4.5 ** Taxslayer Bowl - Iowa vs. Tennessee - Guaranteed

[Pick Bot]

Tennessee -2.5 -120 4.5* play
I like the Vols here in this spot. I don't put a tremendous weight on strength of schedule, but this match up goes over exactly that, because we simply can not ignore the differences here. First off I mentioned in many of my write ups yesterday that the Big Ten is not as bad as people were saying and they went 3-1 yesterday and were under dogs in all 4 games. The 3 wins were the top 3 Big Ten teams and I do think the rest of the Big Ten is just not that good. Iowa for instance had the 80th ranked strength of schedule and who did they beat? Only 2 bowl teams and one was Pitt, the youngest team in the country early in the year and the other was Illinois who might have been the worst bowl team.

Tennessee on the other hand had to play Ole Miss and Alabama from the SEC West, and they played Oklahoma in non-conference play which was good for the 11th toughest schedule. This is an extremely under rated defense that is going to give Iowa a ton of issues. I think the extra practice time is going to benefit Tennessee the most who has more talent that have progressed throughout the year. Butch Jones is also a solid coach that is starting to build this team the way he was hired to do so. The biggest thing I have uncovered from looking at this game is that Tennessee should be able to run and stop the run which is the biggest key to the game.

Tennessee 4.08 ypc in their wins and 2.51 ypc in their losses. Now this is where their SOS comes into play having faced 7 top 50 run stopping units 6 of those 7 were actually top 30 and they went 1-6 against them. Now they'll face Iowa who is ranked 72nd vs. the run. Iowa typically known for their run defense but this year it was their pass defense and I think Tennessee will get some easy third downs to pick up here. I think it also helps to have Dobbs, a running QB and the fact they are going up against a weaker run defense for a change. On the flip side Iowa 4.41 ypc in wins and 3.13 in losses while Tennessee is 52nd vs. the run and that won't impress you they did face 7 top 50 rushing units this year with their schedule while Iowa's 87th ranked rushing until face just 2 teams ranked in the top 75 in rushing defense. Yet they still were only able to average 3.9 ypc and they lost to both who were capable of stopping the run. That typically made Iowa turn to the pass 54% of the time which is not like them. Tennessee also has a very good secondary that has more interceptions than TD's allowed. Their front also is ranked 9th in sack %. Iowa was -5 in turnover margin and I see the ingredients for them to lose that battle again here today.