Alamo Bowl - 2 Play Package - Side & Total - Guaranteed 2-0!

[Pick Bot]

Kansas State +1 2.2* PLAY / OVER 61 3.3* PLAY
This has to be the most exciting game of the day on Friday between the Big 12 and the PAC 12 both conference have had their ups and downs this bowl season. I think both of these teams are pretty even statistically and with their strength of schedules and neither team owns a significant advantage in travel time. Given all of that I look at which team is better coached and I have to go with Snyder and Kansas State who are penalized much less and are +9 in TO margin compared to -1 for UCLA. UCLA had some bad games this year and some bad losses while Kansas State lost the games they were supposed to lose. They lost to Auburn, TCU and Baylor which at the moment does not look so bad.

I like the over despite it being at 61 because I don't see either defense being able to truly hold the other opponent under 30 points. UCLA has a balanced offense with the emergence of Paul Perkins and this team has scored 28+ in all of their 3 games with extra rest. Kansas State's defense has been solid but not elite. They are good at stopping the run, but will have issues against Brett Hundley. For Kansas State they lost when they could not run the ball averaging 1.99 in their losses and 4.33 in their wins. I took a detailed look at whether or not they should be able to run and UCLA ranked 45th vs. the run, but looking at the adjusted rankings they are probably a bit worse. 7 opponents ran for more yards per carry than their season average. It's not like UCLA can stack up against the run either as Jake Waters has been one of the best at QB this year and has arguably the best WR to throw to in Tyler Lockett. With all of that said you can see Kansas State being able to run for more than 3.5 yards per carry and in those cases they have scored 31+ points in all 7 occasions with an average of 45.7 points per game. Neither team really thrives on stopping opponents on 3rd down or in the red zone so we have two offenses that will decide this game from start to finish.