Total of the Week - Guaranteed or $$ Back Auburn vs. Arkansa

[Pick Bot]

Arkansas / Auburn Under 51 3.3* play
I feel really good about this under in what I’m calling the disappointing bowl. Both teams have extra preparation time which means the defenses should have a leg up in my opinion. Arkansas has 14 days with the bye week, and their defense has quietly been improving. If you remember last year they had extra prep 3 times and the defense allowed a total of 21 points combined in those three games. Their opponents were LSU, Alabama, and Texas, now that’s impressive! We have already seen signs of it with their defensive effort against Alabama and there is no reason to believe it won’t continue against Auburn.
Why? Well Auburn’s offense just is not explosive, and struggle when they get into scoring position. Their passing game ranks 126th in explosiveness now that Duke Williams is off the team they really do not have down the field guys, and Arkansas is pretty good along the defensive line ranking 5th in adjusted line and 28th in rushing S&P.

On the flip side this is a bad match up for Auburn’s defensive front. It’s actually the worst front 7 that Arkansas has faced all year and I expect them to really just play their brand of football. Hold onto the ball for 35 minutes and run it down their throat. They too have struggled in the red zone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that repeat itself as they are 44% in red zone TD%. They too are 117th in explosive ness from the running game, and although they rank 23rd in explosiveness in the passing game I don’t think it’s wise for them to try to make too many big plays down the field knowing that Auburn’s 1st in explosiveness pass defense. If there is one thing this Auburn team does well is they limit the big plays. They play a bend but don’t break defense, which matches up well against Arkansas and their slow methodical offensive game plan. Auburn’s defense is not that bad in that they are ranked 59th in adjusted line yards.

I expect an Arkansas win, but wouldn’t be surprised with either outcome. I really like the fact that we are getting over 50 points with the idea that Auburn’s defense is terrible, and Auburn should also score points when I don’t think that is the case in this match up. Auburn also not running their typical offense ranking 101st in pace and I don’t see any reasons why that changes here. The under is 7-0 in Arkansas last 7 games following a bye week, 10-1 in their last 11 overall.