#Big10 Saturday Action - 22-8-1 ATS L3 weeks in NCAAF

[Pick Bot]

ILLINOIS +5 3.3* play
These two teams are very similar, poor on offense, ranked similarly on defense, and they have faced similar strength of schedules although Illinois has played a bit better in my opinion. I believe this line should be more like 3 points, but recent bias has this line higher, because Minnesota has been extremely competitive in their last 3 games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa arguably the 3 best Big 10 teams. I just do not trust their ability to get up for this game, along with the fact that Minnesota is extremely banged up right now, the defensive line, the offensive line, the secondary all have so many question marks going into this game.

If you are a casual fan you would make a few assumptions about this game including the fact that Minnesota can run the ball, Minnesota has the better defense, and Illinois is below average on defense, but that’s actually not true and it favors Illinois in this match up, because they have the better defense, they have the better running game, and Minnesota has struggled to run the ball ranking 102nd in the nation. In fact Illinois is ranked 9th overall in defense, 41st in rush and 12th in pass in S&P ratings. Minnesota has been forced to pass so much this year and they’ve done okay, but just 12 passing TD’s on 334 attempts. This team struggles big time when they get to the red zone, and they’ll face a relentless front 7 out of Illinois that is hungry to get to a bowl game.

Looking at other stats in this game you have to really like Illinois who have the edge in third down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense by a wide margin, turnover margin by 7, penalties, special teams, and tackle for a loss margin. Again they are coming off a 28-3 loss to Ohio State, and not getting much credit, but I think we are about to see Ohio State turn it into high gear, and they had JT Barrett on his heals the entire game. I truly expect Illinois to actually win this game on the road. I don’t know that Minnesota can get up for a team like Illinois after playing 4 marquee games in a row.