Thursday's Early Bird Special Free Pick (30-16 L46 Free Play

[Pick Bot]

Take Marlins -135 1 Dime Free Play (1-5scale)
My lowest ranking on a free pick is a 1 dimer I still consider this a strong play considering I have been on the Marlins Game 1 on the run line and then money line last night for my POD both losers! It's been a rough couple of days but I was expecting this. Don't think for one minute that I let an 11 game POD streak go to my head. I'm smarter than that and I know in this business you are only as good as your last win. Clearly I'm not chasing or this would be another POD. Again the hole I thought Nick Johnson would leave in this lineup is not what I thought, but I still think this young team (Nats) will run into issues with a quality starter.

Alright let's break it down on Thursday with a frustrating pitcher Chris Volstad and the reason why this is a premium play. Volstad has solid stuff he can strike hitters out, but struggles with his command. If you don't believe me in two starts against the Nationals this year he has 12 K's in 9.1 IP. Just shows you the capability he has to dominate this Nats lineup, but in those 2 starts he had 9 BB, and only 8 H, but that's 17 base runners he handed out yet he only gave up 4ER. Just imagine if he has command of his fastball. Which he has had in his last start with just 1 BB. In fact in 4 of his last 6 games he's given up 1BB or less, but in between were two 4BB performances and that's what worries me about him and the reason this is not a premium selection. The Marlins are 12-5 in Volstad's last 17 road starts.

On the other side of the ball we have Craig Stammen who really has not impressed me this year. The Marlins collectively are 7-20 and Hanley Ramirez has 2 hits. Ramirez has been solid during day play and the Marlins actually score more runs per game during the day than they do at night. It's not like they don't have a plan for Stammen as I said they faced him before and they were successful. So let's get some of the money back that we lost on the Marlins the last 2 days which was 6 units.