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4-Dime POD (77-35 this year!) Only $15 Guaranteed

  
Here you will find all of Freddy's released picks. Picks will automatically be posted here 5 minutes after the start of the game.
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4-Dime POD (77-35 this year!) Only $15 Guaranteed

Postby Pick Bot » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:15 pm





Take Under 7.5 runs Rays/Mariners
Finally last night we had a nice relaxing win with the Yankees on the run line. It has been a rough go at it as of late with these POD's definatley not what I'm used to from this season. We usually do go through these little streaks and then we go back on fire. I hope to take last night's win into this weekend.

Friday we go with the Under on the Rays and Mariners. Why? Well we got a nice pitching match up of Felix Hernandez vs. Jeff Niemann. Niemann has pitched very well and is coming into his own as a starter now in my opinion and opening up as an under dog of +142 and now at +121 I think Vegas agrees that Niemann will throw a solid game here against the Mariners who at home this year are only averaging 3.87 runs per 9 innings vs. RHP. Niemann I would say on the other end of the spectrum for RH hurlers as I think he's becoming one of the better ones. The 6 foot 9 Niemann can be extremely intimidating and with a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts I'm confident he will improve on his only start vs. the Mariners which was only his third start of the season. He's grown up quite a bit between then and now.

Felix Hernandez will go for Seattle and he has not been the pitcher we've known this year as of late and it's because of his control which I expect to be there tonight against the Rays. Felix against the Rays at home in his career has a 0.96 ERA in 5 career starts. The Rays own a .141 average against Felix Hernandez and as any competitor Felix knows he hasn't pitched well so I'm going to bet that he bounces back here at home against a solid TB team that is riding high here, but should struggle here against Felix.

Both bullpens have been effective over their last 5 starts with the Rays winning the prize at 2.45 ERA, and the Mariners with a 3.21. Other key stats you might want to know are the Rays struggles vs. RH starters on the road as the under is 14-2 in their last 16 vs. RH starter now facing a clear top 5 pitcher in all of baseball here tonight. Rays are also backed up by their own starter where the under is 5-0 in Niemann's last 5 starts overall.

Mariners are under 12-3 in Felix's last 15 starts vs. the AL East and under 4-0 in his last 4 appearances vs. the Rays. All of this combined with the line movement and 87% of the public on the over of 8 runs and the line moving to 7.5 and I even saw it move to 7 at Bodog briefly makes it a solid chance to go under the total enjoy!
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