4-Dime POD (14-2 L16 & 92-42 This Year!) $15 Guaranteed!

[Pick Bot]

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Take Padres -136 4-Dime POD (1-5scale)
We go with the Padres tonight coming off last nights 2nd POD loss in our last 16 efforts! We will try to rebound again like we did the last time we lost a POD to win 3 straight.

Clayton Richard vs. J.D. Martin, but this has little to do with my decision to make this my biggest play of the day. I will get to the reasons below, but I believe the pitching match up in the end won't decide this game, but rather the bullpens which are on the opposite sides of the spectrum and a huge advantage for the Padres here.

Let's go over Clayton Richard who has been excellent pitching in the pitcher's park in San Diego. He has a 2.08 ERA with 16K's in 17.1 IP at home, but has given up 10 BB so his control is a bit of a concern, but I'm not too worried as the Nationals have scored 8 runs in their last 4 games and sit at 0-4 without Nyjer Morgan a big part of their offensive progress. So now they are without 3 big players who were in their lineup less than a month ago. Austin Kearns, Morgan, and Nick Johnson. Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. LH starter while the Padres who face a RH starter are 5-1 in their last 6. The Nationals have never played well out west in SD as they are 8-24 in their last 32 games out here. Richard who gave up 6 ER in his last start only threw 61 pitches and is primed for a bounce back start against a poor hitting team!

J.D. Martin has not been terrible, and has good control with just 3 BB in 17 IP and 17H on the road this year. However in 8 career starts this year he has only averaged 4.875 innings pitched per start. This is a huge problem which leads to the bullpen. Martin coming off a season high 103 pitches is primed for a let down here today which can only lead to the horrific bullpen sooner rather than later.

On to the bullpens. Let's see the Nationals bullpen in the last 3 has an ERA of 6.98, and over their last 5 it has a 9.53 ERA and a 6.97 over their last 10. That's not a short snapshot as the bullpen has a 6.02 ERA on the road this season. Compare that to the Padres who have a ERA in their last 5 of 2.50, 2.45 over their last 10 and at home this year their bullpen has an ERA of 2.81. I like the way the Padres are hitting right now despite not having a great year with the bats they have hit better as of late and I like them to force Martin who threw a lot of pitches in his last start out of this game very early!