5.5* NFL POD Sunday - Packers vs. Giants (4:30pm et)

[Pick Bot]

This is a great and historical match up the Giants vs. the Packers in the playoffs. We have seen this many times before and on Sunday you won't want to miss out on our 5.5* NFL POD it's backed by a full in depth analysis guaranteed or 1 day is FREE!

Giants +8 (5.5* NFL POD)
I said last week this team was nothing like the 2007 team that won the Super Bowl, but now I’m wanting to take my words back. The reason is all of a sudden the Giants are able to run the ball and that’s probably because Eli Manning is having an MVP like year. Jacobs had 8 carries for 59 yards in the first meeting vs. the Packers and 14 for 92 against an Atlanta defense that’s better in run defense than the Packers who are 26th allowing 4.7 ypc on the season. Much like the Giants are now starting to remind me of the 2007 Giants the Packers to me are not as good as last year’s team and I’ll tell you why.

They are not getting pressure on opposing QB’s with a 4 man pass rush. Which has led to the defense getting shredded as they are 32nd in sack % at 4.35% and even worse over their last 3 games 1.67%. last year they were ranked in the top 5 at 7.97% sack %. When they rush 4 or fewer they are allowing opposing QB’s to complete 66.6% this year when last year they had 19 more sacks in that situation and QB’s completed just 58.2% of their passes. So they have had to blitz and still they have issues getting to the QB and blitzing Eli Manning is never a good idea. They blitzed him over 50% of the time in the first match up and Manning lit them up for over 300 yards, but fell short 38-35. However, since that game the Giants really have turned a corner specifically in their defense that’s among the best in 4 man pass rushing and now even better they are stopping the run which has led to their 3rd down defense holding opponents to 25.5% conversions over their last 3 games 37.6% on the season. Green Bay’s defense 42.56% on the season when they were holding opponents to 35% a year ago.

The biggest key is limiting the turnovers. That’s the only way the Packers blow out the Giants and cover this number because the Giants have always been a good running team. Giants are 8th in turnover margin including +4 margin in their last 3 games while the Packers are #2 in the league. They were -1 in the first game and that was the difference as Clay Mathews had a pick six. I expect the Giants to have every opportunity the way their secondary and pass rush is playing to get up early in this game. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in 3 weeks and although he’s been throwing it’s been a while since him and Jennings his #1 target have been playing at 100% in the same game. They rely on a lot of timing and timing at game speed is completely different that practice. The Giants also do not have to play man to man coverage so expect this to be something Rodgers has not seen too much this season.