4** MLB POD W/ Parlay Bonus - 7:10pm et - 68-44 +50.47U on M

[Pick Bot]

Rays -134 4* MLB POD ; Rays/Giants Parlay +186 1* play
Jeremy Hellickson has 8 starts vs. the Orioles posting a 1.99 ERA. At home he's been even better with 2 complete games and a 0.88 ERA. He's on 5 days rest and should be fresh to go up against Wei-Yen Chen who is also on 5 days rest, but threw 22 more pitches in his last outing. Chen has a 4.27 ERA on the road compared to Hellicksons 3.25 ERA at home and he posts a 5.84 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Rays pitching even worst in Tampa on the carpet with an ERA over 7.

Hellickson will go up against the O's who have a .200 average and a .616 OPS against him. The Orioles have really fell off lately and are now ranked 21st IN OPS vs. RHP where they were in the top 10 for a majority of the season. While I like Hellickson in this match up along with the Orioles struggles in Tampa - 1-5 getting outscored by a 30-10 margin, I like the odds of the Rays getting Chen out early. The Rays have faced 8 top 25 fly ball pitchers at home. None of them have gone more than 6 innings and that includes Justin Verlander (6/4ER). Combined they posted a 4.70 ERA which is not impressive at all considering how the Rays have struggled. Chen is 10th in ground ball % and he'll give up a lot of fly balls there is a reason why he has a 4.37 xFIP thus far compared to his 3.65 ERA. He's not as good as that ERA and I think it shows again in his third start against Tampa who have now won 5 of 6 and are creeping back up into contention, just a 1/2 game out of the Wild Card behind Oakland and the Angels.