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[Pick Bot]

Cardinals -132 4.5* MLB POD
Yovani Gallardo to me is an over rated pitcher and the Brewers are 1-10 when he pitches and they play the Cardinals. They are also 6-20 in his last 26 starts as an under dog which has not happened much this year that's why he's having a good year. That's because he has just 4 starts vs. a team with an OPS in the top 10 vs. RHP. 2 of them were against the Cardinals in which he got rocked twice allowing 14 ER in 5.2 IP. Take his other 24 starts and the average opponent's OPS vs. RHP has a rank of 19.7 and the 4 starts vs. the Reds brings that down a bit. Collectively the Cardinals have a .978 OPS against Gallardo who will also be one 4 days rest 1 day less than Kyle Lohse who has dominated the Brewers this year. Beltran, Holliday, Freese and Molina who are all in the line up are 10-14 with 5 BB's this year against Gallardo and all of them have hit a home run.

Lohse is the main reason the Cardinals are where they are and I don't see it changing he's on 5 days rest where he has a 2.40 ERA this year pitching on 5 days rest or more in 7 home starts all but 1 was a quality start. The Brewers have a road win % of less than .400 and the Cardinals are 40-14 in their last 54 home games when they play a bad road team. Lohse will also have the ability to face 7 of 9 righties who he has owned this year as they have posted just a .598 OPS against him. He won't have to up against Aramis Ramirez who won't be in the line up which is another plus. Overall Lohse has a 2.25 ERA on the year and the Brewers were slowed down by Josh Johnson yesterday to end their hot streak. I still think we are getting a nice number here considering how much better the Cardinals are. As they are scoring more than 1.14 runs per 9 at home than the Brewers on the road and we talked about the starting pitching advantage, but the Cardinals also enjoy a better bullpen. Brewers have a 5.06 bullpen ERA over their last 10 games combined.