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Yankees -164 5* MLB POD
This is a great spot for the Yankees facing a RH fly ball pitcher at home and we are not paying too much considering they have arguably their best pitcher in Hiroki Kuroda going at home tonight. Gonzalez has nice road starts, but the Yankees have already seen him twice and he gives up over a HR/9 and he also allows just 34.9 GB % which would be the third least among starters. His xFIP is 4.63 so his raw stats lead me to believe that he's not as good as he has pitched so far. This is a tough spot for the 28 year old rookie and he's been a bit lucky with a .260 BABIP and a 82.6% LOB. I think the Yankees at home where they are dominant 15-3 following an off day should be able to get to Gonzalez with runners on base or via the home run. They are 10-2 this year at home vs. RH starters who have a GB% under 45% and those starters posted a 5.54 ERA.

I looked at this stat because the Yankees win via the home run and they also win against RHP because they are a lefty heavy line up. They have good numbers against Gonzalez who is over achieving. Despite paying a hefty price of -164 I believe it's worth it and there is actually some value as I believe this line should be more like -180 where it opened, but the line has come down thus showing us value.