3.3* NFL Late Afternoon Shocker - 25-12 L37 NFL Picks

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PATRIOTS VS. SEAHAWKS +3.5 PREMIUM 3.3* PLAY
The Patriots head back out on the road to face the Seattle Seahawks in one of the most challenging environments at Century Link Field. Early odd sources are showing that the line opened up at -4 in favor of the Patriots and 60-75% of the public jumped on the Patriots. The line has moved to 3.5 and 3 in some place.
This could be for several reasons...

Early smart money or BIG MONEY coming in on Seattle and vegas is forced to move the lines to make the Patriots look more attractive in order to attempt to even out the money on both sides. Or some smart money is coming in on Seattle only to push the line to key number like -3 so that they can then go back and hammer the Patriots at a key number. However, I don't see that in this situation and I really like the Seahawks in this one.

1.) Patriots run game is clicking and they are running more than anyone in the league.
• Seattle can stop the run as they are 3rd rush yards allowed, (14,20,30,19,28)
• SEA is 4th in ypc, NE did face two other top 10 teams in run defense ypc and lost to both of them Arizona, Baltimore. (11, 32, 18)
• You want to stop the Patriots stop their running game first and that's something Seattle can do.

2.)Why is NE running so much? They are trying to hide their issues pass blocking!
• Patriots are 18th in sack % and the only other top 10 sack % team they faced was the Cardinals and they lost at home. Others 12, 24, 29, 20th while Seattle is 6th and 10.23 % at home
• Patriots will have major problems when they are forced to the passing game against a team with a strong pass rush.
• SEA has physical corners and can match up with Gronkowski.
• Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker can beat these corners on double moves, but Brady won't have the time.

3.) NE's defense does struggle at times
• NE's defense has played well they are top 10 in ypc and yards allowed rushing which is the strength of Seattle, however
• They allowed over 5 ypc vs. Ray Rice and they faced two of the leagues worst in Tenn, and Ariz that are padding their stats
• Seattle may throw less than anyone, but Wilson does have poise and is getting better by the week.
• It helps he faces a team that struggles to get in the backfield. The Patriots are 26th in sack %. Seattle has had to play some of the best pass rushes so far 2, 5, 9, 11, 13 - I'm intrigued to see what Wilson does when he's afforded more time this week. I think the results will be positive.

4.) Leon Washington is due to break one and Century Link Field is most challenging places to play ask capable offenses of GB and Dallas who scored a combined 19 points. Seattle only allows 1 RZ attempt per game at home this year.